Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat Prediction, 10/4/2020 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat

Date: Sunday, October 4, 2020

Location: AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Los Angeles -5

Total/Over-Under: 217.5

Tyler Herro and the Miami Heat play the Los Angeles Lakers at AdventHealth Arena on Sunday in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Miami opens this game as 5-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 217.5.

The Lakers took a 2-0 series lead on Friday night with a 124-114 win over the undermanned Heat. LeBron James once again just missed recording a triple-double, finishing with 33 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists. Jimmy Butler led Miami with 25 pts, 13 assists, and 8 boards. The Lakers controlled most of the game after building a 14-point halftime lead. The status of both Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo isn't looking promising for Game 3, so it'll be an uphill battle.

The Lakers are covering 53.5% of the time, having gone 46-40-2 ATS. Miami is covering 55.7% of the time, going 49-39-2 against the spread.

Key Los Angeles Lakers Injuries

No key injuries to report

Key Miami Heat Injuries

10/3/2020 Bam Adebayo PF Neck Game Time Decision
10/3/2020 Chris Silva PF Pelvis Game Time Decision
10/3/2020 Goran Dragic PG Foot Game Time Decision
10/3/2020 Gabe Vincent PG Knee Game Time Decision

Player Spotlight

Anthony Davis comes into this game averaging 26.1 points per contest while playing 34.4 minutes per night this year. He grabs 9.3 rebounds per contest and distributes 3.2 assists per game. His FG percentage is 50% while his free throw percentage is 85%. LeBron James averages 25.3 points per contest in 34.6 minutes per game. He averages 10.2 assists per game and 7.8 rebounds per contest. His field goal percentage is 49% for the season while his free throw percentage is 69%.

Player Spotlight

Tyler Herro scores 13.5 points per contest while playing 27.4 minutes per game. He hauls in 4.1 rebounds per contest and has 2.2 assists per game on the season. His FG percentage is 43% and his free throw percentage is at 87%. Jimmy Butler averages 19.9 points per game this year and he sees the court an average of 33.8 minutes per game. He also brings in 6.7 rebounds per game and has 6.0 assists per contest. His field goal percentage is 46% and his free throw percentage is 83%.

Useful Team Statistics

Los Angeles averages 113.4 points per contest, which is 11th in the league. Their average scoring margin is 5.8 and their shooting percentage is 48% as a unit, which has them ranked 1st. From 3-point territory they shoot 35%, which is good for 22nd in the NBA. They average 45.7 boards per contest and 25.4 assists per game, which ranks them 9th and 10th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they are 9th with 15.2 per game. The Lakers allow 107.6 points per contest, which is 4th in the NBA. They also surrender a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from 3-point range, ranking them 8th and 8th in defensive field goal percentage. Opponents average 42.3 rebounds a game which ranks 2nd, and they allow 23.4 assists per game which puts them in 7th place in the league. They force 15.9 turnovers per game which ranks them 26th in the NBA.

Useful Team Statistics

Miami is 15th in the NBA with 112.0 points per contest this season. They are 8th in the league in shooting at 47%, while their average scoring margin is 2.95. They shoot 38% from beyond the arc, which is good for 2nd in the league. They are 17th in the NBA in rebounding with 44.4 boards per contest and 5th in assists per game with 25.9. The Heat are 13th in turnovers per contest with 14.9. The Heat give up 109.1 points per game, which ranks them 10th in the league. Their defense surrenders a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from behind the 3-point line, ranking them 7th and 6th in those defensive statistics. They rank 15th with 24.6 dimes allowed per game and 3rd with 42.5 boards surrendered per contest. The Heat are 10th in the league in forcing turnovers with 14.0 per contest this year.

Advanced Statistics

The Lakers are 11th in the NBA in offensive rating with 112, and their defensive rating of 106.3 is ranked 3rd. In terms of pace they are 12th in the league with 100.9 possessions per 48 minutes, and their effective field goal percentage of 54% is 5th. As a team they are 10th in the NBA in true shooting percentage with 57% and they shoot 3-pointers on 36% of their shots, ranking 23rd in the league. Los Angeles is 9th in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.3 times per 100 possessions while forcing 14.1 on the defensive end. Their defensive effective field goal percentage for the season currently is 52%, which is 24th in the league.

Advanced Statistics

Miami is 7th in the NBA in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.5 times per 100 possessions while forcing 12.6 on the defensive end. Their defensive effective field goal percentage for the season currently is 52%, which is 20th in the league. The Heat are 7th in the NBA in offensive rating with 112.5, and their defensive rating of 109.5 is ranked 10th. In terms of pace they are 27th in the league with 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and their effective field goal percentage of 55% is 3rd. As a team they are 1st in the NBA in true shooting percentage with 59% and they shoot 3-pointers on 42% of their shots, ranking 7th in the league.

Who will win tonight's Lakers/Heat NBA game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Miami +5

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