Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Lakers Prediction, 9/26/2020 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Lakers

Date: Saturday, September 26, 2020

Location: AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida

TV: TNT

Odds/Point Spread: Los Angeles -6

Total/Over-Under: 215.5

LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers host the Denver Nuggets at AdventHealth Arena on Saturday in Game 5 of their series. The spread on this matchup has Los Angeles as 6-point favorites. The total opens at 215.5.

The Lakers took a 3-1 series lead on Thursday night with a 114-108 win. Anthony Davis led L.A. with 34 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists, but he twisted his ankle and looked hobbled the rest of the way. One key to the Lakers winning was LeBron James switching to guard Jamal Murray down the stretch. James shut him down for a few big possessions in a row to give enough distance between the two teams and allow the Lakers to take a commanding series lead. Denver was down 3-1 to the Clippers, so taking them easy wouldn't be a smart move for L.A.

The Nuggets are covering the spread 51.8% of the time, having gone 44-41-6 ATS. Los Angeles is covering 53.0% of the time, going 44-39-2 against the spread.

Key Denver Nuggets Injuries

9/21/2020 Vlatko Cancar SF Foot Expected to be out until at least Oct 1
8/28/2020 Will Barton SF Knee Expected to be out until at least Oct 1

Key Los Angeles Lakers Injuries

9/25/2020 Anthony Davis PF Ankle Game Time Decision
9/23/2020 Alex Caruso SG Wrist Game Time Decision
9/23/2020 Dion Waiters SG Groin Game Time Decision
9/23/2020 Danny Green SF Finger Game Time Decision

Player Spotlight

Nikola Jokic comes into this contest averaging 19.9 points per game while playing 32.0 minutes per night this season. He pulls down 9.7 rebounds per game and dishes out 7.0 assists per game as well. His field goal percentage is 53% while his free throw percentage currently sits at 82%. Gary Harris averages 10.4 points per game in 31.8 minutes per contest this season. He averages 2.1 assists per contest and 2.9 rebounds per game. His field goal percentage is 42% for the year while his free throw percentage is 82%.

Player Spotlight

LeBron James averages 25.3 points per game while playing 34.6 minutes per contest this year. He grabs 7.8 rebounds per game and has 10.2 assists per contest on the year. His field goal percentage is 49% and his free throw percentage is at 69%. Kyle Kuzma averages 12.8 points per game this season and he sees the court an average of 25.0 minutes per contest. He also averages 4.5 rebounds per contest and 1.3 assists per game. His field goal percentage is 44% and his free throw percentage is 74%.

Useful Team Statistics

Denver averages 111.3 points per contest this season, which ranks them 19th in the NBA. Their average scoring margin is 2.1 and their shooting percentage is 47% as a team, which has them ranked 4th. Behind the arc they shoot 36% which is good for 15th in the league. They average 44.1 rebounds per game and 26.7 assists per game, which ranks them 20th and 4th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they rank 24th with 13.8 per game. The Nuggets allow 109.2 points per game to their opponents which ranks them 11th in the league. They also allow a 46% shooting percentage and a 36% average from behind the arc, ranking them 17th and 17th in those defensive categories. Opponents average 42.6 rebounds a game which ranks 4th and they give up 25.4 assists per contest, which puts them in 24th place in the league. They force 14.3 turnovers per game which ranks them 14th in the league.

Useful Team Statistics

Los Angeles is 11th in the league with 113.4 points per game this year. They are 1st in the league in shooting at 48%, while their average scoring margin is 5.8. They shoot 35% from 3-point range, which is good for 22nd in the NBA. They are 9th in the league in rebounding with 45.7 boards per game, and 10th in assists per contest with 25.4. The Lakers are 9th in turnovers per game with 15.2. The Lakers surrender 107.6 points per contest, which ranks them 4th in the NBA. Their defense allows a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from 3-point range, ranking them 8th and 8th in those defensive statistics. They rank 7th with 23.4 assists allowed per contest and 2nd with 42.3 rebounds surrendered per game. The Lakers are 26th in the NBA in forcing turnovers with 15.9 per game.

Advanced Statistics

The Nuggets are 5th in the league in defensive rating with 111, and their offensive rating of 113.1 is ranked 16th. They are 29th in the NBA in pace with 97.1 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 54% is 9th. As a unit they are 15th in the league in true shooting percentage with 57% and they shoot 3-pointers on 34% of their shot attempts, ranking 27th in the NBA. Denver is 23rd in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 12.3 times per 100 possessions while forcing 12.9 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 53%, which is 14th in the NBA.

Advanced Statistics

Los Angeles is 9th in the league in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.3 times per 100 possessions while forcing 14.1 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 52%, which is 24th in the NBA. The Lakers are 11th in the league in defensive rating with 106.3, and their offensive rating of 112 is ranked 3rd. They are 12th in the NBA in pace with 100.9 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 54% is 5th. As a unit they are 10th in the league in true shooting percentage with 57% and they shoot 3-pointers on 36% of their shot attempts, ranking 23rd in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's Nuggets/Lakers NBA game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Denver +6

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