Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Predictions, Expert NBA Pick 3/11/2020

Game: Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks

Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Location: American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX

TV: Fox Sports Southwest - Dallas

Odds/Point Spread: Dallas -1

Total/Over-Under: 230

Kristaps Porzingis and the Dallas Mavericks (39-26, 2nd in the Southwest Division) play the Denver Nuggets (43-21, 1st in the Northwest Division) at American Airlines Center on Wednesday, March 11, 2020. Dallas opens this contest as 1 point favorites. The total is set at 230.

The Nuggets are covering 48.3% of the time, having gone 29-31-4 ATS. Dallas covers the spread 54.8% of the time, going 34-28-3 against the spread.

Key Denver Nuggets Injuries

No key injuries to report

Key Dallas Mavericks Injuries

03/09/20 SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Illness is downgraded to out Tuesday vs San Antonio
03/09/20 PG Luka Doncic Wrist is questionable Tuesday vs San Antonio
03/09/20 C Willie Cauley-Stein Illness is out Tuesday vs San Antonio
03/09/20 SG Seth Curry Ankle is downgraded to out Tuesday vs San Antonio
03/08/20 SF Dorian Finney-Smith Hip is questionable Tuesday vs San Antonio
02/24/20 PG Jalen Brunson Shoulder is out indefinitely
01/21/20 PF Dwight Powell Achilles is out for season

Player Spotlight

Nikola Jokic comes into this contest averaging 20.3 points per game while playing 32.3 minutes per night this season. He pulls down 10.2 rebounds per game and dishes out 6.8 assists per game as well. His field goal percentage is 53% while his free throw percentage currently sits at 81%. Gary Harris averages 10.4 points per game in 31.9 minutes per contest this season. He averages 2.1 assists per contest and 3.0 rebounds per game. His field goal percentage is 42% for the year while his free throw percentage is 82%.

Player Spotlight

Kristaps Porzingis averages 19.4 points per game while playing 31.2 minutes per contest this year. He grabs 9.4 rebounds per game and has 1.7 assists per contest on the year. His field goal percentage is 42% and his free throw percentage is at 78%. Tim Hardaway averages 15.8 points per game this season and he sees the court an average of 28.5 minutes per contest. He also averages 3.0 rebounds per contest and 2.0 assists per game. His field goal percentage is 44% and his free throw percentage is 81%.

Useful Team Statistics

Denver averages 110.6 points per contest this season, which ranks them 20th in the NBA. Their average scoring margin is 3.3 and their shooting percentage is 47% as a team, which has them ranked 6th. Behind the arc they shoot 36% which is good for 15th in the league. They average 44.3 rebounds per game and 26.6 assists per game, which ranks them 20th and 4th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they rank 24th with 13.7 per game. The Nuggets allow 107.4 points per game to their opponents which ranks them 7th in the league. They also allow a 46% shooting percentage and a 35% average from behind the arc, ranking them 14th and 9th in those defensive categories. Opponents average 42.7 rebounds a game which ranks 5th and they give up 25.0 assists per contest, which puts them in 22nd place in the league. They force 14.4 turnovers per game which ranks them 14th in the league.

Useful Team Statistics

Dallas is 3rd in the league with 116.5 points per game this year. They are 13th in the league in shooting at 46%, while their average scoring margin is 6.1. They shoot 37% from 3-point range, which is good for 8th in the NBA. They are 5th in the league in rebounding with 47.0 boards per game, and 13th in assists per contest with 24.5. The Mavericks are 28th in turnovers per game with 12.8. The Mavericks surrender 110.4 points per contest, which ranks them 15th in the NBA. Their defense allows a 45% shooting percentage and a 34% average from 3-point range, ranking them 12th and 5th in those defensive statistics. They rank 9th with 23.6 assists allowed per contest and 17th with 45.5 rebounds surrendered per game. The Mavericks are 2nd in the NBA in forcing turnovers with 12.2 per game.

Advanced Statistics

The Nuggets are 7th in the league in defensive rating with 109.4, and their offensive rating of 112.7 is ranked 13th. They are 29th in the NBA in pace with 97.2 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 53% is 11th. As a unit they are 17th in the league in true shooting percentage with 56% and they shoot 3-pointers on 34% of their shot attempts, ranking 27th in the NBA. Denver is 23rd in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 12.2 times per 100 possessions while forcing 13 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 53%, which is 16th in the NBA.

Advanced Statistics

Dallas is 29th in the NBA in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 11.3 times per 100 possessions while forcing 10.8 on the defensive end. Their defensive effective field goal percentage for the season currently is 52%, which is 22nd in the league. The Mavericks are 1st in the NBA in offensive rating with 116.8, and their defensive rating of 110.7 is ranked 17th. In terms of pace they are 18th in the league with 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes, and their effective field goal percentage of 55% is 4th. As a team they are 4th in the NBA in true shooting percentage with 58% and they shoot 3-pointers on 46% of their shots, ranking 2nd in the league.

Who will win tonight's Nuggets/Mavericks NBA game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Denver +1

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