Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction, 9/27/2020 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

Date: Sunday, September 27, 2020

Location: AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Boston -3.5

Total/Over-Under: 214.5

Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics are headed to AdventHealth Arena on Sunday where they'll take on the Miami Heat in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston opens this contest as 3.5-point favorites. The O/U opens at 214.5.

Boston cut Miami's series lead to 3-2 with a 121-108 win on Friday night. Jayson Tatum paced the Celtics with 31 points, 10 boards, and 6 assists and Jaylen Brown added 28 points. Goran Dragic (23 points) and Duncan Robinson (20 pts) led a balanced Miami attack in the loss.

The Celtics cover the spread 60.7% of the time, having gone 51-33-4 ATS. Miami is covering the spread 55.3% of the time, going 47-38-2 against the spread.

Key Boston Celtics Injuries

9/22/2020 Romeo Langford SG Wrist Out for the season

Key Miami Heat Injuries

9/26/2020 Gabe Vincent PG Knee Game Time Decision
9/25/2020 Chris Silva PF Pelvis Expected to be out until at least Sep 27

Player Spotlight

Jaylen Brown comes into this game averaging 20.3 points per contest while playing 33.9 minutes per night this year. He grabs 6.4 rebounds per contest and distributes 2.1 assists per game. His FG percentage is 48% while his free throw percentage is 72%. Kemba Walker averages 20.4 points per contest in 31.1 minutes per game. He averages 4.8 assists per game and 3.9 rebounds per contest. His field goal percentage is 43% for the season while his free throw percentage is 86%.

Player Spotlight

Jimmy Butler scores 19.9 points per contest while playing 33.8 minutes per game. He hauls in 6.7 rebounds per contest and has 6.0 assists per game on the season. His FG percentage is 46% and his free throw percentage is at 83%. Bam Adebayo averages 15.9 points per game this year and he sees the court an average of 33.6 minutes per game. He also brings in 10.2 rebounds per game and has 5.1 assists per contest. His field goal percentage is 56% and his free throw percentage is 69%.

Useful Team Statistics

Boston averages 113.7 points per contest, which is 9th in the league. Their average scoring margin is 6.3 and their shooting percentage is 46% as a unit, which has them ranked 16th. From 3-point territory they shoot 36%, which is good for 12th in the NBA. They average 46.1 boards per contest and 23.0 assists per game, which ranks them 8th and 25th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they are 23rd with 13.8 per game. The Celtics allow 107.3 points per contest, which is 2nd in the NBA. They also surrender a 44% shooting percentage and a 34% average from 3-point range, ranking them 4th and 2nd in defensive field goal percentage. Opponents average 44.3 rebounds a game which ranks 11th, and they allow 22.4 assists per game which puts them in 2nd place in the league. They force 15.2 turnovers per game which ranks them 22nd in the NBA.

Useful Team Statistics

Miami is 15th in the NBA with 112.0 points per contest this season. They are 8th in the league in shooting at 47%, while their average scoring margin is 2.95. They shoot 38% from beyond the arc, which is good for 2nd in the league. They are 17th in the NBA in rebounding with 44.4 boards per contest and 5th in assists per game with 25.9. The Heat are 13th in turnovers per contest with 14.9. The Heat give up 109.1 points per game, which ranks them 10th in the league. Their defense surrenders a 45% shooting percentage and a 35% average from behind the 3-point line, ranking them 7th and 6th in those defensive statistics. They rank 15th with 24.6 dimes allowed per game and 3rd with 42.5 boards surrendered per contest. The Heat are 10th in the league in forcing turnovers with 14.0 per contest this year.

Advanced Statistics

The Celtics are 4th in the NBA in offensive rating with 113.3, and their defensive rating of 107 is ranked 4th. In terms of pace they are 17th in the league with 99.5 possessions per 48 minutes, and their effective field goal percentage of 53% is 16th. As a team they are 12th in the NBA in true shooting percentage with 57% and they shoot 3-pointers on 39% of their shots, ranking 14th in the league. Boston is 24th in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 12.2 times per 100 possessions while forcing 13.5 on the defensive end. Their defensive effective field goal percentage for the season currently is 51%, which is 27th in the league.

Advanced Statistics

Miami is 7th in the NBA in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13.5 times per 100 possessions while forcing 12.6 on the defensive end. Their defensive effective field goal percentage for the season currently is 52%, which is 20th in the league. The Heat are 7th in the NBA in offensive rating with 112.5, and their defensive rating of 109.5 is ranked 10th. In terms of pace they are 27th in the league with 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and their effective field goal percentage of 55% is 3rd. As a team they are 1st in the NBA in true shooting percentage with 59% and they shoot 3-pointers on 42% of their shots, ranking 7th in the league.

Who will win tonight's Celtics/Heat NBA game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Miami +3.5

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