San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets Game 7 Picks 4/27/2019

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Pepsi Center

Get todays NBA odds and lines on this game.

The San Antonio Spurs are headed to Pepsi Center on Saturday where they'll meet Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in Game 7 of their 1st round series. The Spurs won Game 6 by a score of 120-103 to force a Game 7. DeMar DeRozan had 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists to lead San Antonio and send the series back to Denver. The Nuggets open as 5.5-point favorites. The total is 210. The Spurs (48-34, 2nd in the Southwest Division) are covering the spread 53% of the time, having gone 46-41-1 for the season. The Nuggets (54-28, 1st in the Northwest Division) have an ATS mark of 45-43-0, so they are covering the spread 51% of the time. As a favorite, Denver is covering 53% of the time, while San Antonio has covered the spread 56% as the underdog for the season. The Nuggets have been outstanding for point spread wagerers at home, going 27-17-0 against the spread.

Valuable San Antonio Spurs Betting Trends

The San Antonio Spurs are 46-40-2 against the spread this season

The San Antonio Spurs are 47-41-0 against the over/under this year

Important Denver Nuggets Betting Trends

The Denver Nuggets are 45-43-0 against the spread this season

The Denver Nuggets are 39-49-0 against the over/under this year

Key San Antonio Spurs Injuries

10/08/18 G Dejounte Murray ACL is out for season

Key Denver Nuggets Injuries

04/26/19 G Jamal Murray Thigh injured last game, is probable Saturday vs San Antonio

Player Spotlight

LaMarcus Aldridge comes into this game averaging 21.3 points per contest while playing 33.2 minutes per night this year. He grabs 9.2 rebounds per contest and distributes 2.4 assists per game. His FG percentage is 52% while his free throw percentage is 85%. DeMar DeRozan averages 21.2 points per contest in 34.9 minutes per game. He averages 6.2 assists per game and 6.0 rebounds per contest. His field goal percentage is 48% for the season while his free throw percentage is 83%.

Player Spotlight

Nikola Jokic scores 20.1 points per contest while playing 31.3 minutes per game. He hauls in 10.8 rebounds per contest and has 7.3 assists per game on the season. His FG percentage is 51% and his free throw percentage is at 82%. Paul Millsap averages 12.6 points per game this year and he sees the court an average of 27.1 minutes per game. He also brings in 7.2 rebounds per game and has 2.0 assists per contest. His field goal percentage is 48% and his free throw percentage is 73%.

Useful Team Statistics

San Antonio averages 111.7 points per contest, which is 18th in the league. Their average scoring margin is 1.7 and their shooting percentage is 48% as a unit, which has them ranked 2nd. From 3-point territory they shoot 39%, which is good for 1st in the NBA. They average 44.7 boards per contest and 24.5 assists per game, which ranks them 21st and 16th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they are 30th with 12.1 per game. The Spurs allow 110.0 points per contest, which is 12th in the NBA. They also surrender a 46% shooting percentage and a 36% average from 3-point range, ranking them 18th and 19th in defensive field goal percentage. Opponents average 43.9 rebounds a game which ranks 7th, and they allow 24.7 assists per game which puts them in 18th place in the league. They force 12.2 turnovers per game which ranks them 1st in the NBA.

Useful Team Statistics

Denver is 20th in the NBA with 110.7 points per contest this season. They are 13th in the league in shooting at 47%, while their average scoring margin is 3.95. They shoot 35% from beyond the arc, which is good for 20th in the league. They are 8th in the NBA in rebounding with 46.4 boards per contest and 2nd in assists per game with 27.4. The Nuggets are 23rd in turnovers per contest with 13.4. The Nuggets give up 106.7 points per game, which ranks them 6th in the league. Their defense surrenders a 46% shooting percentage and a 34% average from behind the 3-point line, ranking them 15th and 1st in those defensive statistics. They rank 16th with 24.6 dimes allowed per game and 1st with 42.5 boards surrendered per contest. The Nuggets are 14th in the league in forcing turnovers with 13.5 per contest this year.

Advanced Statistics

The Spurs are 7th in the league in defensive rating with 111.2, and their offensive rating of 112.9 is ranked 19th. They are 22nd in the NBA in pace with 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 53% is 7th. As a unit they are 7th in the league in true shooting percentage with 57% and they shoot 3-pointers on 29% of their shot attempts, ranking 30th in the NBA. San Antonio is 29th in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 11 times per 100 possessions while forcing 11 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 53%, which is 11th in the NBA.

Advanced Statistics

Denver is 24th in the league in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 11.9 times per 100 possessions while forcing 12.3 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 52%, which is 17th in the NBA. The Nuggets are 6th in the league in defensive rating with 108.9, and their offensive rating of 113 is ranked 10th. They are 27th in the NBA in pace with 97.7 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 53% is 14th. As a unit they are 14th in the league in true shooting percentage with 56% and they shoot 3-pointers on 35% of their shot attempts, ranking 15th in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's Spurs/Nuggets NBA game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take San Antonio +5.5

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