Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets NBA Game Picks 11/5/2019

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Pepsi Center

Get todays NBA odds and lines on this game.

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (4-2, 2nd in the Northwest Division) play the Miami Heat (5-1, 1st in the Southeast Division) at Pepsi Center on Tuesday, November 5, 2019. Denver opens this matchup as 5 point favorites. The over/under opens at 210.5.

The Heat cover the spread 100% of the time, having gone 5-0-1 ATS. Denver is covering 40.0% of the time, going 2-3-1 against the spread.

Key Miami Heat Injuries

11/3/2019 Justise Winslow SF Back Game Time Decision
11/3/2019 KZ Okpala SF Achilles Game Time Decision
11/3/2019 Jr SF Groin Game Time Decision

Key Denver Nuggets Injuries

11/3/2019 Will Barton SF Toe Game Time Decision

Player Spotlight

Bam Adebayo comes into this game averaging 13.8 points per contest while playing 31.5 minutes per night this year. He grabs 9.0 rebounds per contest and distributes 5.2 assists per game. His FG percentage is 58% while his free throw percentage is 67%. Goran Dragic averages 16.2 points per contest in 27.3 minutes per game. He averages 4.2 assists per game and 3.3 rebounds per contest. His field goal percentage is 47% for the season while his free throw percentage is 71%.

Player Spotlight

Nikola Jokic scores 15.8 points per contest while playing 30.7 minutes per game. He hauls in 10.5 rebounds per contest and has 6.0 assists per game on the season. His FG percentage is 48% and his free throw percentage is at 81%. Jamal Murray averages 18.5 points per game this year and he sees the court an average of 32.8 minutes per game. He also brings in 4.8 rebounds per game and has 3.5 assists per contest. His field goal percentage is 43% and his free throw percentage is 89%.

Useful Team Statistics

Miami averages 117.8 points per contest, which is 6th in the league. Their average scoring margin is 11.7 and their shooting percentage is 48% as a unit, which has them ranked 1st. From 3-point territory they shoot 40%, which is good for 2nd in the NBA. They average 47.0 boards per contest and 27.0 assists per game, which ranks them 10th and 4th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they are 1st with 20.3 per game. The Heat allow 106.2 points per contest, which is 11th in the NBA. They also surrender a 42% shooting percentage and a 27% average from 3-point range, ranking them 6th and 1st in defensive field goal percentage. Opponents average 42.3 rebounds a game which ranks 5th, and they allow 22.5 assists per game which puts them in 11th place in the league. They force 19.3 turnovers per game which ranks them 29th in the NBA.

Useful Team Statistics

Denver is 25th in the NBA with 103.5 points per contest this season. They are 26th in the league in shooting at 42%, while their average scoring margin is 0.33. They shoot 34% from beyond the arc, which is good for 16th in the league. They are 18th in the NBA in rebounding with 45.0 boards per contest and 25th in assists per game with 21.2. The Nuggets are 25th in turnovers per contest with 14.3. The Nuggets give up 103.2 points per game, which ranks them 6th in the league. Their defense surrenders a 44% shooting percentage and a 32% average from behind the 3-point line, ranking them 12th and 8th in those defensive statistics. They rank 20th with 24.0 dimes allowed per game and 16th with 46.0 boards surrendered per contest. The Nuggets are 12th in the league in forcing turnovers with 15.3 per contest this year.

Advanced Statistics

The Heat are 7th in the NBA in offensive rating with 109.2, and their defensive rating of 98.4 is ranked 3rd. In terms of pace they are 6th in the league with 106.1 possessions per 48 minutes, and their effective field goal percentage of 56% is 2nd. As a team they are 1st in the NBA in true shooting percentage with 60% and they shoot 3-pointers on 40% of their shots, ranking 8th in the league. Miami is 1st in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 17 times per 100 possessions while forcing 16.1 on the defensive end. Their defensive effective field goal percentage for the season currently is 48%, which is 23rd in the league.

Advanced Statistics

Denver is 25th in the NBA in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 12.7 times per 100 possessions while forcing 13.9 on the defensive end. Their defensive effective field goal percentage for the season currently is 50%, which is 21st in the league. The Nuggets are 19th in the NBA in offensive rating with 104.8, and their defensive rating of 104.4 is ranked 14th. In terms of pace they are 30th in the league with 97.1 possessions per 48 minutes, and their effective field goal percentage of 48% is 26th. As a team they are 26th in the NBA in true shooting percentage with 53% and they shoot 3-pointers on 35% of their shots, ranking 25th in the league.

Who will win tonight's Heat/Nuggets NBA game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Miami +5

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