Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks - 12/14/19 NBA Picks, Odds, and Prediction

Game: Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks

Date: Saturday, December 14, 2019

Location: American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX

TV: Fox Sports Southwest - Dallas

Odds/Point Spread: Dallas -7.5

Total/Over-Under: 215.5

Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat (18-6, 1st in the Southeast Division) are headed to American Airlines Center on Saturday where they'll take on the Dallas Mavericks (17-7, 1st in the Southwest Division). Dallas opens this contest as 7.5 point favorites. The O/U has been set at 215.5.

The Heat are covering the spread 65.2% of the time, having gone 15-8-1 ATS. Dallas is covering 62.5% of the time, going 15-9-0 against the spread.

Key Miami Heat Injuries

12/12/2019 Justise Winslow SF Back Expected to be out until at least Dec 14
12/12/2019 Goran Dragic PG Groin Expected to be out until at least Dec 14
12/12/2019 Tyler Herro SG Illness Game Time Decision

Key Dallas Mavericks Injuries

12/12/2019 Delon Wright PG Thigh Expected to be out until at least Dec 14

Player Spotlight

Jimmy Butler comes into this contest averaging 20.6 points per game while playing 35.1 minutes per night this season. He pulls down 6.9 rebounds per game and dishes out 7.0 assists per game as well. His field goal percentage is 43% while his free throw percentage currently sits at 83%. Bam Adebayo averages 15.3 points per game in 33.5 minutes per contest this season. He averages 4.4 assists per contest and 10.5 rebounds per game. His field goal percentage is 59% for the year while his free throw percentage is 66%.

Player Spotlight

Luka Doncic averages 30.4 points per game while playing 33.5 minutes per contest this year. He grabs 9.9 rebounds per game and has 9.3 assists per contest on the year. His field goal percentage is 48% and his free throw percentage is at 80%. Kristaps Porzingis averages 16.6 points per game this season and he sees the court an average of 30.2 minutes per contest. He also averages 8.7 rebounds per contest and 1.3 assists per game. His field goal percentage is 40% and his free throw percentage is 72%.

Useful Team Statistics

Miami averages 112.0 points per contest this season, which ranks them 12th in the NBA. Their average scoring margin is 5.8 and their shooting percentage is 48% as a team, which has them ranked 4th. Behind the arc they shoot 38% which is good for 3rd in the league. They average 45.4 rebounds per game and 25.3 assists per game, which ranks them 12th and 8th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they rank 1st with 17.7 per game. The Heat allow 106.2 points per game to their opponents which ranks them 8th in the league. They also allow a 44% shooting percentage and a 32% average from behind the arc, ranking them 7th and 2nd in those defensive categories. Opponents average 40.8 rebounds a game which ranks 2nd and they give up 23.8 assists per contest, which puts them in 14th place in the league. They force 15.8 turnovers per game which ranks them 22nd in the league.

Useful Team Statistics

Dallas is 3rd in the league with 118.1 points per game this year. They are 8th in the league in shooting at 47%, while their average scoring margin is 9.7. They shoot 36% from 3-point range, which is good for 11th in the NBA. They are 4th in the league in rebounding with 47.9 boards per game, and 13th in assists per contest with 24.4. The Mavericks are 30th in turnovers per game with 12.8. The Mavericks surrender 108.4 points per contest, which ranks them 15th in the NBA. Their defense allows a 45% shooting percentage and a 34% average from 3-point range, ranking them 12th and 7th in those defensive statistics. They rank 8th with 22.9 assists allowed per contest and 9th with 44.5 rebounds surrendered per game. The Mavericks are 1st in the NBA in forcing turnovers with 12.6 per game.

Advanced Statistics

The Heat are 9th in the league in defensive rating with 104.7, and their offensive rating of 110.5 is ranked 8th. They are 19th in the NBA in pace with 99.6 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 55% is 2nd. As a unit they are 2nd in the league in true shooting percentage with 59% and they shoot 3-pointers on 40% of their shot attempts, ranking 12th in the NBA. Miami is 1st in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 15.7 times per 100 possessions while forcing 14 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 51%, which is 21st in the NBA.

Advanced Statistics

Dallas is 30th in the league in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 11.3 times per 100 possessions while forcing 11.2 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 51%, which is 18th in the NBA. The Mavericks are 1st in the league in defensive rating with 108.4, and their offensive rating of 118.1 is ranked 14th. They are 20th in the NBA in pace with 99.6 possessions per 48 minutes, and their eFG% of 55% is 4th. As a unit they are 3rd in the league in true shooting percentage with 59% and they shoot 3-pointers on 45% of their shot attempts, ranking 2nd in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's Heat/Mavericks NBA game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Miami +7.5

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