Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Expert NBA Picks Against the Spread 12/4/2019

Game: Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

Date: Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Location: TD Garden in Boston, MA

TV: NBC Sports Boston

Odds/Point Spread: Boston -5.5

Total/Over-Under: 212.5

TD Garden is the site where Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics (14-5, 2nd in the Atlantic Division) will play the Miami Heat (14-5, 1st in the Southeast Division) on Wednesday. Boston opens this contest as 5.5 point favorites. The O/U is set at 212.5.

The Heat cover the spread 72.2% of the time, having gone 13-5-1 ATS. Boston is covering 64.7% of the time, going 11-6-2 against the spread.

Key Miami Heat Injuries

12/2/2019 Goran Dragic PG Groin Expected to be out until at least Dec 4
12/1/2019 KZ Okpala SF Achilles Game Time Decision

Key Boston Celtics Injuries

12/2/2019 Marcus Smart PG Oblique Game Time Decision
11/27/2019 Tacko Fall C Knee Expected to be out until at least Dec 8
11/11/2019 Gordon Hayward SF Hand Expected to be out until at least Dec 25

Player Spotlight

Goran Dragic comes into this contest averaging 15.9 points per game while playing 28.7 minutes per night this season. He pulls down 3.2 rebounds per game and dishes out 5.0 assists per game as well. His field goal percentage is 47% while his free throw percentage currently sits at 71%. Bam Adebayo averages 13.9 points per game in 32.1 minutes per contest this season. He averages 4.2 assists per contest and 10.6 rebounds per game. His field goal percentage is 58% for the year while his free throw percentage is 66%.

Player Spotlight

Jaylen Brown averages 19.3 points per game while playing 33.4 minutes per contest this year. He grabs 7.1 rebounds per game and has 2.0 assists per contest on the year. His field goal percentage is 49% and his free throw percentage is at 71%. Jayson Tatum averages 21.1 points per game this season and he sees the court an average of 34.6 minutes per contest. He also averages 7.1 rebounds per contest and 2.7 assists per game. His field goal percentage is 41% and his free throw percentage is 82%.

Useful Team Statistics

Miami averages 111.4 points per contest this season, which ranks them 13th in the NBA. Their average scoring margin is 6.3 and their shooting percentage is 48% as a team, which has them ranked 3rd. Behind the arc they shoot 39% which is good for 3rd in the league. They average 44.6 rebounds per game and 25.0 assists per game, which ranks them 20th and 12th in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they rank 1st with 18.4 per game. The Heat allow 105.1 points per game to their opponents which ranks them 8th in the league. They also allow a 44% shooting percentage and a 32% average from behind the arc, ranking them 9th and 2nd in those defensive categories. Opponents average 40.4 rebounds a game which ranks 2nd and they give up 23.5 assists per contest, which puts them in 14th place in the league. They force 16.7 turnovers per game which ranks them 26th in the league.

Useful Team Statistics

Boston is 15th in the league with 110.7 points per game this year. They are 24th in the league in shooting at 44%, while their average scoring margin is 6.3. They shoot 35% from 3-point range, which is good for 24th in the NBA. They are 9th in the league in rebounding with 46.6 boards per game, and 18th in assists per contest with 23.7. The Celtics are 29th in turnovers per game with 13.2. The Celtics surrender 104.5 points per contest, which ranks them 6th in the NBA. Their defense allows a 43% shooting percentage and a 34% average from 3-point range, ranking them 5th and 7th in those defensive statistics. They rank 8th with 23.0 assists allowed per contest and 26th with 47.3 rebounds surrendered per game. The Celtics are 25th in the NBA in forcing turnovers with 16.6 per game.

Advanced Statistics

The Heat are 10th in the NBA in offensive rating with 110, and their defensive rating of 103.8 is ranked 6th. In terms of pace they are 15th in the league with 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes, and their effective field goal percentage of 55% is 2nd. As a team they are 1st in the NBA in true shooting percentage with 59% and they shoot 3-pointers on 39% of their shots, ranking 12th in the league. Miami is 1st in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 16.3 times per 100 possessions while forcing 14.8 on the defensive end. Their defensive effective field goal percentage for the season currently is 51%, which is 20th in the league.

Advanced Statistics

Boston is 29th in the NBA in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 11.6 times per 100 possessions while forcing 14.6 on the defensive end. Their defensive effective field goal percentage for the season currently is 50%, which is 22nd in the league. The Celtics are 9th in the NBA in offensive rating with 110.3, and their defensive rating of 104 is ranked 7th. In terms of pace they are 21st in the league with 99.9 possessions per 48 minutes, and their effective field goal percentage of 51% is 22nd. As a team they are 21st in the NBA in true shooting percentage with 55% and they shoot 3-pointers on 38% of their shots, ranking 13th in the league.

Who will win tonight's Heat/Celtics NBA game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Miami +5.5

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