Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves NBA Picks & Predictions 4/21/2018

Monday, April 23, 2018

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Get todays NBA odds and lines on this game.

There’s a tired old maxim in the playoffs that suggests “a series doesn’t start until someone wins on the road.” To this point in Houston and Minnesota’s opening round NBA series the home team has held serve, with the Rockets holding on to a 2-1 lead overall.

Top-seeded Houston will attempt to take control of the series in a crucial Game 4. No. 8 Minnesota will host the Rockets at 8 p.m. on Monday, April 16 at the Target Center. A win by the Timberwolves would knot the series at two games apiece when the series shifts back to Houston on Wednesday. But a Rockets victory would give Houston two chances to advance by winning on their home floor.

The Timberwolves are 5.5-point underdogs tonight and the total is set at 218.0.

Minnesota set up this critical Game 4 with a 121-105 blowout on Saturday. The Timberwolves bounced back from a 20-point defeat in Game 2 and used 50 percent shooting to overwhelm the Rockets in the second half. Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Andrew Wiggins each topped the 20-point barrier for the Timberwolves while James Harden was held to 29 points on just 9-for-21 shooting.

Houston has lived and died by the 3-point shot all season long. And the deep ball was the cause of their undoing in Game 3. The Rockets combined to shoot just 15-for-41 (36.6 percent) from beyond the arc their last time out while Minnesota was a deadeye 15-for-27 from 3-point range.

The Rockets have not lost back-to-back games since Jan. 6. They are an astounding 40-7 since then and have gone 4-2 against the spread in their next game following each of their previous six losses.

Valuable Houston Rockets Betting Trends

Rockets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss.

Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference.

Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Important Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Trends

Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.

Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Timberwolves are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Key Houston Rockets Injuries

04/11/18 F Luc Mbah a Moute Shoulder is out indefinitely

Key Minnesota Timberwolves Injuries

04/22/18 F Jimmy Butler Ankle injured last game, is probable Saturday vs Houston

Player Spotlight

Eric Gordon has been an outstanding scorer throughout his entire NBA career. And if Houston is going to slam the door on the Timberwolves in this series I think they are going to need more from Gordon, who is just 11-for-39 from the field and 6-for-26 from 3-point range in this series. Gordon’s scoring average is half of what it was in the regular season and his efficiency is way down. This team needs a viable third scoring option on the perimeter to take the pressure off Harden and Paul. I think that guy needs to be Gordon.

Player Spotlight

Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford have more combined playoff experience than the rest of the Timberwolves combined. Houston obviously has more firepower in its backcourt with Harden and Paul. But Teague and Crawford can’t shy away from a gun fight and they have to be able to knock down some big shots. Teague and Crawford combined for 30 points in Game 1’s near miss and for 29 points in Game 3’s upset. But they were total non-factors in Game 2, combining for just 13 points. How these veterans perform will go a long way in determining whether or not this becomes a series. 

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Let’s not overreact to one game. Houston has dominated the Western Conference this season and they are a stellar 31-11 straight-up on the road. Minnesota shot out of its mind in Game 3. But they are a below-average 3-point shooting team and I don’t see that happening again here. I know that the Timberwolves are not the typical No. 8 seed because they were forced to play without their best player, Butler, for so much of the season. But at the end of the day there’s still a reason that Houston is the top seed in the West and why Minnesota is a team that barely made the postseason.

The more I see Houston the less I like their chances of making it to the Finals. But in regards to this series I still think they are much deeper, more talented team. I don’t expect Harden to stay down very long. And the Timberwolves won’t shoot as well tonight as they did on Saturday. I see the Rockets using a patented late surge to take control of this series while beating the number.

Robert's Pick: Take Houston (-5.5)

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