The storyline has been similar in the first two games of this series. The Warriors have gotten out to a big lead, gotten too tentative, and tried desperately to hold on. So far they are running at .500 on that front. In the first game they were cruising, but they ended up collapsing. An 18-2 run by San Antonio forced overtime, and the Spurs came out on top. In Game 2 the Warriors held on to win by nine, but they didn’t earn a whole lot of style points along the way. So, can the Warriors play the fourth quarter with more composure at home? Can they get out to another lead in the first place, or will the Spurs find a way to keep it closer? Those are the questions bettors need to find a good answer for.

Spurs at Warriors Betting Storylines

Betting on Golden State has been far from difficult lately. They covered each of the last three spreads they faced in the regular season — including a 10-point home win over San Antonio as six-point favorites. They have played eight playoff games. Their record is just 5-3, but all eight games have something in common — the Warriors have covered the spread each time. That means that they are 11-0 against the spread in their last 11 games. It’s hard to be more impressive than that.

San Antonio hasn’t been quite as impressive — they have failed to cover the last two, of course. They did cover all four games against the pathetic Lakers, though — though that was far from challenging in the circumstances.

Experience was a clear factor going into this series. The Spurs have plenty and the Warriors don’t. In this situation, though, San Antonio’s experience isn’t particularly positive. This is not a team that has a good recent history after losing one of two home games to open a series. In 2009 they split the opening homestand against the Mavericks and then lost the next three games, including a really flat loss in Game 3. In 2001 they were the top seed in the West, but they again split against the Grizzlies at home. Then they lost both games in Memphis before ultimately dropping the series in six.

Now we have a team that has, at the core, been through those two situations and is older now than it was. Will they be able to learn from those situations and change the course of this series? Or will they just repeat past mistakes? One thing is for certain — if they again lose this series then it is time to take a long, hard look in the mirror and figure out what is wrong with this team when the playoffs start.

What’s perhaps most impressive about what Golden State has done in these first two games is that it hasn’t been one player carrying the team on his shoulders. In the first game Stephen Curry was exactly what he is — the best shooter on the planet. He hit 18 field goals had 44 points and was everything for the team. In Game 2 he fell back to earth a little — partly because even he is mortal and partly because the Spurs focused on him more than they had. In his place Klay Thompson, who was almost invisible in the opener, missing on all four three-point attempts, exploded. Thompson hit eight of nine from beyond the arc, had 34 points, added 12 rebounds, and was a one-man wrecking crew.

If the Warriors have two shooters of that caliber feeling good, the Spurs really don’t have an answer for that — no team does. The evaluation of this game, then, really has to come down to what you expect from Curry and/or Thompson here and how you expect the Spurs to attempt to deal with them.

Spurs at Warriors NBA Game 3 Odds and Betting Trends

5Dimes has the Warriors favored by 2.5 with the total set at 203. The game opened at -2 in most places, so the Warriors are drawing support.

The Spurs are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Warriors overall. They are 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine games in Golden State, though. The “over” is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings.

Spurs at Warriors Picks and Game 3 Betting Predictions

There could be a temptation to overthink this one, but I am going to resist it. The Warriors are red hot against the spread. They face a spread here that seems more than fair. They are carrying momentum home, and their crowd will be insanely enthusiastic. The Spurs aren’t quite right — if they were then they wouldn’t have let the Warriors open up the leads in both games. The series is very much up in the air, but the Warriors have a good edge here.

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