The Pacers put their brilliant home record (20-4) on the line against a Nets team that has lost more road games than they have won but only barely (11-12). Both teams are all but certain to head to the playoffs and could conceivably meet up in the first round, so the matchup is interesting to watch. More significantly, though, this one is interesting from a betting perspective because the action is overwhelmingly tilted towards the Pacers. More than 90 percent of the bets have been on Indiana, and it seems likely that that will be the case right up to game time. The question, then, is whether the action is justified or if the wildly unbalanced attention creates additional value on the underdog.

Nets at Pacers Betting Storylines

Rest is a big story in this one and a big part of the reason why the Pacers are so much more popular than Brooklyn here. Indiana last played at home on Friday, while the Nets are heading into this one following a beatdown at home at the hands of the Spurs Sunday night. Indiana probably needed the extra rest, though, after suffering a rare home loss at the unlikely hands of the Raptors in their last game. Indiana has a clear edge on this front, but it is not all it could be.

The Pacers have some faults, but they are, in general, a good team. At home they are a great team. That is very bad news for the Nets because they have really struggled to perform against good squads. In fact, they have been terrible. After losing to the Spurs, they are just 11-20 against teams above .500. If you want to look on the bright side, that means that they are a brilliant 18-2 against teams at .500 or below. That hardly helps them here, though, and it won’t help them over the next six games — the Spurs game was the first of seven straight against winning teams. The team is struggling right now — 4-6 in their last 10 — so it would be easy for them to be overwhelmed and distracted heading into this one.

The Pacers aren’t completely immune to distractions themselves in this one, though. Their offense has struggled this year, and a big part of the reason for that is that Danny Granger has been out all year with a knee injury. He’s a top player in the league, so his absence is obviously significant. It has only been recently that the team has established their chemistry without him and found a way to perform efficiently offensively. That’s good news. It’s also all about to be disrupted — though potentially in a good way. Granger participated in a full court practice for the first time on Sunday, and he could be back in action as soon as Wednesday. He won’t directly impact this game, but the team knows how close he is, and he is unquestionably their biggest star. You wouldn’t blame this team for looking ahead to his return at least a little bit.

Nets at Pacers NBA Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with the Pacers favored by 6.5. 5Dimes has moved that line to 8.5, and given the unbalanced action there is a good chance that it will climb higher than that. The total sits at 183.5.

The Nets have gone under the total in five of their last six games, while the Pacers have gone over the total in each of their last four. The Nets have covered each of the last four meetings between these squads. The over is 13-3-1 when these teams meet in Indiana.

Nets at Pacers Picks and Betting Predictions

The Pacers should win. The question is whether they can win by enough to cover this spread. I’d love to go against the overwhelming flow of public opinion, but I can’t here. The Nets are coming off a horrible performance, are generally in a slump, and are not great on the road. Indiana lost a rough one at home last time out and may not be at their most focused, but they are rested, at home, and bounce back well from home setbacks. This is Indiana’s game to lose. I’d jump on them as soon as I could to get the best possible price.

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