Toyota Owners 400 Picks, Odds & Predictions 3/31/2024
Toyota Owners 400
Sunday, March 31, 2024
7:00 PM EST
Richmond Raceway
Richmond, VA
NASCAR heads for short track racing in Richmond after hitting the road circuit last weekend. The Toyota Owners 400 will be held at the small Virginia oval known as Richmond Raceway. This track has 14 degrees in every turn and spans three-quarters of a mile. The higher speeds at Richmond are reminiscent of Charlotte with the fender-bending and contact of Bristol. Average laps for drivers come close to 120 mph which tends to be more than you'll see as the short tracks that run half a mile, but you'll still see the close side-by-side racing that makes the short tracks so exciting. Brake conservation is a big factor in this race and similar to the short tracks, rotors and brakes can take a beating because of the constant braking in the corners. Overdriving in the corners and lack of brake conservation have led to many early exits at the Richmond Raceway over the years. Long runs at RIR can make this a race into a fuel conservation and pit strategy kind sort of affair which is unlike most short tracks.
All in all, this is one of the most fun races on the circuit because of the varied strategies, competitiveness and momentum swings. Last weekend's race at Circuit of the Americas was a really fun race and will be hard to top that one going into the weekend, That said, with all the parity and wild finishes so far this season, it is shaping up to be one of the best ones yet.
There are a few drivers that we expect to do well here when looking at historical data. Denny Hamlin has a 109.0 driver rating at RIR and has an average finish of 8.5 over the last 37 races. Kyle Busch has also been successful here over the years with an average finishing spot of 7.1 and a driver rating of 108.0. Look for those two to have an impact on the race this weekend in Richmond.
EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Recap
Dominating when he needed to, William Byron put in a great performance last weekend and held off the competition to get this win by a mere .692 seconds. Byron becomes the first driver of the season to get his second win after takin the opener at Daytona. In his career, this is the 12th win by Byron and the win gives Hendrick Motor Sports the all-time series lead with 28 wins on NASCAR road courses.
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NASCAR Playoff Standings
With his second win of the young season, William Byron launched himself into first place with 183 points. Following him is Denny Hamlin with 206 points, while Kyle Larson is holding down the third spot with 205 points. Coming in at the fourth spot is Christopher Bell with 183 points and rounding out the top 5 is Daniel Suarez with 148 points.
Toyota Owners 400 Odds
Denny Hamlin - +425
Christopher Bell - +425
Martin Truex Jr. - +600
Ty Gibbs - +850
Kyle Larson - +900
William Byron - +1100
Chris Buescher - +1100
Brad Keselowski - +1300
Ryan Blaney - +1500
Kyle Busch - +1500
Tyler Reddick - +1600
Chase Elliott - +1700
Ross Chastain - +2000
Joey Logano - +2200
Bubba Wallace - +4500
Alex Bowman - +5000
Josh Berry - +6500
Chase Briscoe - +6500
Noah Gragson - +9000
Michael McDowell - +9000
Denny Hamlin is one of the favorites and for good reason. He's won four times in Richmond which puts him in second place out of active drivers. He had a strong showing in Phoenix earlier this year and had a win in Bristol just a couple weeks ago. This team has been good on short tracks all season and I see this one going well for them too.
Josh's Pick: Take Denny Hamlin (+425)
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