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YellaWood 500 Picks, Odds & Predictions 9/24/2023

by Josh Schonwald - 9/29/2023


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YellaWood 500

Sunday, October 1, 2023

12:00 PM EST

Talladega Superspeedway

Talladega, AL

If luck was ever to come into play during the Chase for the NASCAR Cup, this would be the race where it would happen. The YellaWood 500 takes place at Talladega Superspeedway and Talladega is known for its intense pack racing. Lots of situations can come up in a race like this and sometimes you just have to be the lucky one to not be caught up in all the drama. This is the perfect race to throw in with the intermediate ovals, flat tracks and short tracks that make up this last stretch of 10 races in the championship chase. When you look at the last few weeks of racing, they've been on smaller and intermediate ovals with few crashes and not many cautions. This weekend we're in for some big changes as we head to Talladega. Racing in these tight conditions for 500 miles almost always leads to some sort of drama on the track and this is where the luck will come in. Taking into account this is the second race of the Round of 12 of the Chase, the stakes will continue to grow.

nascar picks William Byron predictions best bet odds

As has happened in the past, a driver without a lot of exposure could be the one surprising everyone this weekend. Ricky Stenhouse Jr won the Dayton 500 while Kyle bush won in Talladega in the spring and Chris Buescher won there just a few weeks ago. We might see another surprise this weekend. There are a couple drivers who typically do well here and could be a threat to any surprise winner and those are Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney. They have both won here two times and have performed very well on superspeedway tracks for the year. That said, keep an eye out for those drivers. However, there is a great deal on the line for a lot of drivers so you might see more action at Talladega this weekend than the previous races here this season.

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With six laps remaining in the race, Hendrick Motorsports driver William Byron took the lead and didn't give it back. He was able to hold off the field on an extremely hot and dramatic day at Texas Motor Speedway. For Hendrick Motorsports, it was their 300th win which makes it the most in NASCAR history for a Cup Series team. Speaking about setting high marks, this is a personal high, series-best sixth win for the Byron. He came from the third spot to eventually win by 1.863 seconds over Ross Chastain. It gives him the automatic berth into the next round and sets him up nicely going forward.

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NASCAR Playoff Standings

As we sit, William Byron leads the playoff pack with his sixth win of the season. Currently, Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick both sit right below the cut line, so they'll need to do some work if they want to make the next round.

YellaWood 500 Odds

Brad Keselowski - +1100
Ryan Blaney - +1200
Joey Logano - +1200
Chris Buescher - +1300
William Byron - +1400
Chase Elliott - +1400
Bubba Wallace - +1400
Denny Hamlin - +1600
Kyle Busch - +1800
Ross Chastain - +2000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - +2000
Kyle Larson - +2000
Austin Cindric - +2000
Aric Almirola - +2000
Christopher Bell - +2200
Erik Jones - +2500
Daniel Suarez - +2500
Tyler Reddick - +2800
Ty Gibbs - +2800
Michael McDowell - +2800

The season has been a rollercoaster ride for Ryan Blaney, but he's been doing everything he can to remain in the hunt for the championship. For him and his team, the superspeedway ovals have been a place where he has performed well. Blaney has led 52 laps combined for the season between Talladega and Daytona and has two top-10 finishes. He's got a great chance to do well here too.

Josh's Pick: Take Ryan Blaney (+1200)

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