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Xfinity 500 Picks, Odds & Predictions 10/29/2023

by Tony Sink - 10/27/2023

Xfinity 500

Sunday, October 29, 2023

2:00 PM EST

Martinsville Speedway

Martinsville, VA

The Round of 8 in the Chase ends this weekend as NASCAR visits the shortest track on the circuit in Martinsville, VA. Martinsville Speedway is located in Southern Virginia's foothills and while the surroundings might be tranquil, the racing on this day will not be. After going to intermediate ovals and superspeedways for most of the playoffs, NASCAR heads to quite the opposite for the Xfinity 500. There will be some big surprises for drivers as they experience an enormous shift in racing styles this weekend.

nascar picks Denny Hamlin predictions best bet odds

You could best describe this track as a "paperclip" shape because of its two 800 foot straight-aways with tight turns in the corner that are at 12 degrees. To race here at Martinsville Speedway, drivers must have focus, physical stamina, mental toughness and a car that can hold up to the demands of this track. That said, heading into this weekend, drivers will be looking to survive. This track demands a lot of drivers and their cars so what better track to end the Round of 8. Some of the remaining drivers are great short-track drivers so we should see quite a show this weekend. The stakes are huge in this 500-lap dogfight. Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr and Tyler Reddick have all gotten much better on this track in recent years, while Truex and Hamlin have combined for eight wins at Martinsville in their storied careers. Get ready for an exciting day of racing because drivers will be going after it!


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This just happened to be one of the most exciting races of the playoffs this season and Christopher Bell was the one leading all the excitement. He got off to a rough start but came storming back at the end of the race to lead the final 16 laps and earned his spot into the Championship 4. Bell didn't even get into the top five drivers until there were around 50 laps remaining and was able to pass both drivers that were dominating the race to that point. Getting his second win of the season and sixth of his career, Bell was able to punch his ticket into the next round.

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NASCAR Playoff Standings

As we sit, Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson have both earned their way into the next round. Bell currently sits with 4,110 points and a win while Larson has a win and 4,105 points thus far. William Byron sits behind them with 4,126 points and Ryan Blaney is in the fourth spot with 4,106 points. Drivers that will have to make some big moves include Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin and Chris Buescher. They are all on the outside looking in when talking about moving on to the Championship 4.

Xfinity 500 Odds

Denny Hamlin - +275
Kyle Larson - +700
William Byron - +750
Brad Keselowski - +850
Martin Truex Jr. - +900
Ryan Blaney - +1100
Joey Logano - +1400
Tyler Reddick - +1500
Kevin Harvick - +1800
Kyle Busch - +1900
Christopher Bell - +2000
Chase Elliott - +2000
Chris Buescher - +2200
Ty Gibbs - +2800
Aric Almirola - +3000
Chase Briscoe - +3500
Ross Chastain - +4000
Ryan Preece - +4500
Bubba Wallace - +4500
Alex Bowman - +6500

Denny Hamlin is the favorite in this race and it's for good reason. Not only is this "do or die" for Hamlin, but he's also raced well in Martinsville in the past. He has five career wins on this track, and he's led over 2,200 laps here over the course of his career. He's also raced well on the short tracks this season, so picking Hamlin to win is as good a bet as any of the drivers on the board.

Tony's Pick: Take Denny Hamlin (+275)

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