Toyota/Save Mart 350 Picks, Odds & Predictions 6/11/2023

by Guy Bruhn - 6/9/2023

Toyota/Save Mart 350

Sunday, June 11, 2023

3:30 PM EST

Sonoma Raceway

Sonoma, CA

NASCAR is heading back to the road circuits and leaving the ovals behind for this weekend’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, CA. This will be the second time this year that NASCAR has hit the road circuit and we're excited for it. Sonoma Raceway is a 12-turn road course that spans 2.52 miles with many types of cornering and elevations. This track has pretty straight and long runs that suddenly end into some sharp corners which means that brakes and horsepower will be pivotal in the race this weekend. This course is not easy on the drivers and the vehicles they're in. One lap around this track has 160 ft in elevation change. For drivers that can out brake the opposition and drive in deep, there is a 180-degree run right before the start/finish line that will provide a lot of chances to pass other drivers. Other than that turn, there will be other opportunities to pass, but drivers will have to stay alert for those chances. For oval track drivers, chances to pass will be hard to find and you'll see them struggle.

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This will be the first visit to CA for NASCAR since the Auto club Speedway race back in February and it signifies that beginning of the heart of the road course schedule. Four different road courses will be visited in the next 11 weeks which will include the new street course in Chicago. There will be some adjustments that will need to be made for drivers to get used to getting back this style of race. COTA was the last place that drivers were on a course with so many twists and turns and in order to predict who might do well, we should probably take a look at that race.

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It was the 63rd NASCAR Cup Series win of his illustrious career for Kyle Busch, but he had to work hard to get the win. Busch won that pole at it set him up for good placement, however, it was going to take more than that to win this race. He was able to get through five restarts on the last 40 laps of the race to beat out Denny Hamlin by just over a half second. The 11th caution of the race and the one that sent this race into overtime was caused by a broken brake rotor on Bubba Wallace's car. It was Busch's first win at this track and the third with his new team. In all, he led for 121 laps and finished with 60 straight leading laps to win the race.

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NASCAR Playoff Standings

Nothing has changed in terms of positioning in the playoff race. William Byron still holds the top spot in the playoff standings with three wins and 482 points. Following him is Kyle Busch with three wins and 451 points, while Kyle Larson follows him with 411 points and two wins for himself. Ryan Blaney has now pushed himself into the fourth spot with a win and 495 points while Martin Truex Jr. comes in fifth with a win and 472 points.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds

Tyler Reddick - +450
Kyle Larson - +450
Chase Elliott - +550
William Byron - +850
Ross Chastain - +900
Kyle Busch - +900
Daniel Suarez - +1,600
A.J. Allmendinger - +1,600
Austin Cindric - +2,000
Chris Buescher - +2,200
Christopher Bell - +2,500
Kevin Harvick - +2,800
Alex Bowman - +2,800
Ryan Blaney - +3,500
Joey Logano - +3,500
Martin Truex Jr. - +4,000
Denny Hamlin - +4,000
Michael McDowell - +4,500
Chase Briscoe - +5,000
Brad Keselowski - +5,000

Tyler Reddick is the favorite for a reason. In many ways, he's taken over as the top road course driver over Chase Elliott. He's won three of them since last season in the last seven road course events. One of those wins came earlier this year at COTA and he's a great bet to win this weekend.

Guy's Pick: Take Tyler Reddick (+450)

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Toyota/Save Mart 350 Picks, Odds & Predictions 6/11/2023

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