NOCO 400 Picks, Odds & Predictions 4/16/2023

by Tony Sink - 4/13/2023

NOCO 400

Sunday, April 16, 2023

3:00 PM EST

Martinsville Speedway

Martinsville, VA

The short track schedule continues this weekend with the NASCAR Cup Series heading to Martinsville, VA to race on the pavement for the NOCO 400. This is the second short track race, and it comes directly after the Food City Dirt Race, which was also a short track. This race has been shortened to 400 laps from 500 and the stages consist of 80 laps, 100 laps and 220 laps. This is an extremely flat track as the straightaways are truly flat and the turns only have 12 degrees of banking. Just as it was a couple weeks ago, tire and brake preservation will play a big role in this race and will be an enormous factor in who is going to win this race because the track is essentially two long strips of straightaway with hairpin turns on the ends. For these reasons, this track has the moniker of "the paperclip". Being mindful of your brakes is going to be the difference in this one.

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Like any similar track in the Cup Series, positioning is one of the most important factors. If a driver gets stuck in the back of the pack, they might find themself a lap back very quickly. This applies to the start of the race or any restarts. This means teams should prioritize getting good track position and not losing it when they get it. It's going to be crucial in this race because drivers will not be able to navigate back to the top of the field as easily as you can on other short tracks. In fact, positioning is so important that you'll notice some teams opt for only two tires on a pit stop or even choose to not pit at all on some caution flags. For all these reasons, racing at Martinsville is a battle of the best pit strategy and equipment preservation.

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Food City Dirt Race Recap

Before the race started, Christopher Bell had talked about how a true "dirt guy" hadn't won in Thunder Valley and he intended on changing that. Sure enough, Bell ended up taking the checkered flag through dominating late in the race. There were 14 cautions in this race and Bell had to hold off Tyler Reddick for much of the race. This still applied with about 200 yards left in the race and the last caution. That said, this wasn't anything Bell couldn't handle. He's the same driver that won the Chili Bowl Midget Nationals for three years starlight from 2017-19.

This was a tough race and was hard for drivers not to get sucked in when they drove really hard. Because of this, drivers would have to be mindful of not overdriving and at the same time, keeping an eye on who is creeping up behind them.

NASCAR Playoff Standings

We have a new driver to launch themselves into the top-5 and this was Christopher Bell. With the win, Bell raised his positioning all the way to number two with one win and 281 points. Only William Byron is ahead of him with two wins and 193 points. Coming in at number three is Kyle Larson with 242 points. Larson had a rough outing last weekend and ended his race early while getting in an accident. Tyler Reddick and Kyle Busch round out the top-5 with 235 points and 234 points respectively.

NOCO 400 Odds

William Byron - +600
Kyle Larson - +650
Christopher Bell - +650
Denny Hamlin - +700
Martin Truex Jr. - +850
Joey Logano - +850
Ryan Blaney - +1,100
Kyle Busch - +1,200
Ross Chastain - +1,600
Kevin Harvick - +2,000
Alex Bowman - +2,000
Josh Berry - +2,000
Brad Keselowski - +2,200
Tyler Reddick - +2,800
Chris Buescher - +3,500
Daniel Suarez - +4,000
Chase Briscoe - +4,000
Aric Almirola - +4,000
Ryan Preece - +5,000
Bubba Wallace - +5,000
Austin Dillon - +5,000

William Byron is the defending champ at this track and is currently the favorite in the race. Last year was the first 400-mile version of this race. Martin Truex Jr. won the prior two races and Brad Keselowski won two of the prior three.

Tony's Pick: Take William Byron (+600)

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NOCO 400 Picks, Odds & Predictions 4/16/2023

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