Hollywood Casino 400 Picks, Odds & Predictions 9/10/2023

by Josh Schonwald - 9/7/2023

Hollywood Casino 400

Sunday, September 10, 2023

3:00 PM EST

Kansas Speedway

Kansas City, KS

We will see an uptick in the intensity as we move forward in the opening round of the Chase for the Cup. The stakes and the pressure will continue to increase for the 16 drivers still in the chase and this Sunday, the race will be held at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, KS. This is the prelude to the Round of 12 cut and the second race of the opening round. The cut will happen after next week’s race in Bristol. At Kansas Speedway, we think of your standard intermediate oval on the circuit, and it might not be exactly like Atlanta, Charlotte or Texas but it might be the most important one when you look at the stakes involved.

This is a 1.5 mile track on asphalt that ranges from 17 to 20 degrees of progressive banking in the turns. On the frontstretch you'll see 9 to 11 degrees of progressive banking and 5 degrees on the backstretch.

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This will be the second trip to Kansas Speedway this season and we can use some of the history of this track to help us determine who might have a good day. Drivers last raced here back in May for the AdventHealth 400. Denny Hamlin was able to get the victory beating out Kyle Larson and William Byron. That said, some of the hottest drivers will be driving this weekend. Kevin Harvick has been great at Kansas Speedway with an average finish of 9th. Kyle Larson has also done well here with an average finish of 13.5 and 540 laps led. Denny Hamlin has an average finish of 12.9 here with a driver rating of 93.8.

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Kyle Larson, the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Champion, was able to hold off Tyler Reddick to claim the first race of the playoffs. This win earned him an automatic bid into the Round of 12 when it comes. Larson wasn't exactly lighting the race world on first as he's averaged a finish of 17.5 over his last six races. However, he was able to weather a brush up against the wall and a transmission that was stuck in neutral momentarily. It was his third win of the season, his first win at Darlington and the 22nd win of his career. It put him in a great position heading into the next round of the playoffs.

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NASCAR Playoff Standings

Kyle Larson leads the way in the playoffs with the win over the weekend while William Byron (2075 points) and Tyler Reddick (2060 points) are right behind him. In the fourth position is Chris Buescher with 2057 points, while Denny Hamlin rounds out the top 5 with 2057 points. There are only so many opportunities for drivers to put themselves in position to advance and as the weeks go by, time to make that move is fleeting.

Hollywood Casino 400 Odds

Denny Hamlin - +450
Martin Truex Jr. - +550
Kyle Larson - +550
William Byron - +750
Tyler Reddicks - +900
Christopher Bell - +900
Bubba Wallace - +1200
Kyle Busch - +1400
Ross Chastain - +1600
Chris Buescher - +1600
Kevin Harvick - +2000
Ryan Blaney - +2200
Joey Logano - +2200
Chase Elliott - +2200
Brad Keselowski - +2200
Alex Bowman - +3000
Ty Gibbs - +3500
Daniel Suarez - +8000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - +15000
Erik Jones - +15000

Denny Hamlin is the favorite this weekend and for good reason. He won here earlier in the year, and he has been racing very well as of late. Hamlin led 177 laps last weekend, and had it not been for a loose wheel, he had a great shot at getting the win. Hamlin is the active wins leader in Kansas, and I think he'll do it again this weekend to put himself into the next round for the Cup.

Josh's Pick: Take Denny Hamlin (+450)

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Hollywood Casino 400 Picks, Odds & Predictions 9/10/2023

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