Hollywood Casino 400 Picks, Odds & Predictions 9/11/2022

by Tony Sink - 9/8/2022

nascar picks Christopher Bell predictions best bet odds

Hollywood Casino 400

Sunday, September 11, 2022

3:00 PM EST

Kansas Speedway

Kansas City, KS

For the 16 drivers in the playoff field, the intensity will be picking up this weekend at the Hollywood Casino 400 in Kansas City. This will be the second race in steps to crowing a champion for the season and it preludes the Round of 12 cut that happens when NASCAR travels to Bristol next weekend.

This will be the second visit to Kansas Speedway this season. This is the definition of what one would call a Kansas oval. While this isn't exactly like the ovals in Atlanta, Texas or Charlotte, it might just be the most important oval this season by the time we reach November and we're in Phoenix. One advantage that drivers and bettors will have this weekend is that NASCAR was just here in May at the Advent Health 400. In that one, Kurt Busch was able to take the checkered flag.

In the last 29 races at Kansas Speedway Kevin Harvick's average finish sits at 8.0 and has a driver rating of 108.5. Kyle Larson has an average finish of 14.6 and driver rating of 101.1. Martin Truex Jr. has a driver rating of 100.3 and an average finish of 12.5.

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Cook Out Southern 500 Recap

In a stunning upset in the Southern 500, Erik Jones pulls off the unthinkable and wins the race. He had a starting position of 15 and through all the twists and turns, Jones was able to get into Victory Lane for the first time since 2014. He was able to hold off Denny Hamlin with 20 straight leading laps for the win at Darlington Raceway. It was his second time winning here and even Jones will tell you, he was due.

This race took a toll on a lot of playoff drivers and having a non-playoff driver win the first postseason event was a first since this elimination format started in 2014. It was the first Cup Series win for crew chief Dave Elenz. When Jones won his first Southern 500 back in 2019, he was part of the Joe Gibbs Racing team. That said, Jones would be let go in favor of Christopher Bello. Jones finished .252 seconds ahead of Hamlin, who ran out of time is his chase for the win.

NASCAR Playoff Standings

As we sit in the 2022 playoffs, Joey Logano is leading the way with 2065 points. He earned 25 points for his 4th place finish last weekend and has a six-point lead over William Byron who sits with 2059 points. Denny Hamlin is currently ranked 3rd in the playoff standings with 2057 points. He finished in second at the Southern 500 and earned 13 points on the day. Rounding out the top 5 for the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs is Christopher Bell with 2055 points and Tyler Reddick with 2050. It was quite a shocker to have a non-playoff driver get the win last weekend and you can bet that these playoff drivers will do all they can to prevent that from happening again.

Hollywood Casino 400 Odds

Denny Hamlin - +600
Kyle Busch - +600
Kyle Larson - +800
Chase Elliott - +800
Martin Truex Jr. - +800
Ross Chastain - +1,000
Tyler Reddick - +1,100
Christopher Bell - +1,200
Ryan Blaney - +1,400
Kevin Harvick - +1,400
Joey Logano - +1,800
William Byron - +1,800
Bubba Wallace - +1,800
Alex Bowman - +2,800
Erik Jones - +2,800
Daniel Suarez - +3,300
Ty Gibbs - +3,300
Austin Dillon - +5,000
Chase Briscoe - +5,000
Austin Cindric - +5,000
Brad Keselowski - +10,000

Since joining Hendrick Motorsports, Larson has run very well at Kansas. out of the 801 laps at this track in the last three races, Larson has led 291 of them. This includes his race last year when led for 130 out of the 267 laps. That said, Larson only led for 29 laps when NASCAR was in Kansas City earlier this year and was beaten out by Kurt Busch. With Busch still sidelined with a concussion, Larson seems to be a safe choice for the weekend.

Tony's Pick: Take Kyle Larson (+800)

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Hollywood Casino 400 Picks, Odds & Predictions 9/11/2022

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