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FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks, Odds & Predictions 8/7/2022

by Tony Sink - 8/5/2022

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FireKeepers Casino 400

Sunday, August 7, 2022

3:00 PM EST

Michigan International Speedway

Brooklyn, MI

USA

Michigan will be getting its first and only visit from NASCAR this year after going through the wild bumps and fender-benders at last weekend’s road course. Over the course of NASCAR history, there was usually two races a season in Michigan, but because of last season’s shakeup in the schedule, we have a trimmed version this year. However, It should be a great time at this two-mile, high-speed track. With the fastest speeds recorded in NASCAR, this track has amazed us all over the years. In 2014, Jeff Gordon had a qualifying lap of 206.558 and it still stands as the fastest speed for a pole qualifying result. Because of changes to the car and changes in performance and aerodynamics, we’ve seen a downward trend in speeds, but you’ll still see average lap speeds to be sitting over 190 MPH. There will be lots of new things to expect and unknowns when NASCAR takes the new NextGen cars to Michigan for the FireKeepers Casino 400.

While the NextGen Cars haven’t gone to Michigan yet, we could compare this race to the Auto Club 400 in Fontana. Austin Cindric won the pole with a speed of 174.647. This happened to be the lowest speed every at Fontana to win the pole, but the race was very exciting. There were 32 lead changes and that was almost double the number of speed changes we had previously seen. While the race at Fontana was almost five months ago, the information being used might be a little dated, but it’s all we have to go off of.

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Verizon 200 at the Brickyard Recap

Three newcomers finished in the top-5 of the Firekeepers Casino while Tyler Reddick crossed the finish line as the winner of the race. It was the first time since 1994 since three rookies did that and those guys were Austin Cindric, Harrison Burton and Todd Gilliland. This may not have happened had Ross Chastain not used the access road during overtime. This moved the three rookies into higher positions.

It was hard to see that one coming but ended up being a good day for the new guys. All the work that Ross Chastain did in this race was undone by a mistake on pit road.

NASCAR Playoff Standings

Chase Elliott still sits at the top of the playoff standings with four wins and 821 points. He still sits in a very advantageous position heading into the final weeks of the season. Sitting behind Elliott with two wins each are Ross Chastain (692 points), Joey Logano (637 points), William Byron (586 points) and now we have Tyler Reddick (549 point) who bumped Denny Hamlin down a spot. Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr are still holding onto the last two points spots. One win can launch a driver into the playoff picture so neither Blaney nor Truex Jr should be comfortable.

FireKeepers Casino 400 Odds

Chase Elliott - +600
Kyle Busch - +650
Kyle Larson - +700
Denny Hamlin - +750
Ross Chastain - +900
William Byron - +1,200
Ryan Blaney - +1,200
Tyler Reddick - +1,200
Martin Truex Jr. - +1,500
Christopher Bell - +1,500
Joey Logano - +2,000
Kurt Busch - +2,500
Kevin Harvick - +2,500
A.J. Allmendinger - +2,500
Erik Jones - +2,500
Daniel Suarez - +2,500
Bubba Wallace - +2,500
Alex Bowman - +2,500
Chase Briscoe - +5,000
Austin Dillon - +5,000
Austin Cindric - +5,000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - +10,000
Michael McDowell - +10,000
Chris Buescher - +10,000
Brad Keselowski - +10,000
Aric Almirola - +10,000
Austin Hill - +10,000

While Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr are two of the more desperate drivers out there, they will need to really have a good weekend if they want to lock down a playoff spot. It also might be a great chance for Kevin Harvick to get above the cut line as he's won this race five times. All that said, with a little luck, Truex Jr could be sitting with a couple wins this season. We think this weekend is the one where he gets that ever elusive win.

Tony's Pick: Take Martin Truex Jr. (+1500)

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FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks, Odds & Predictions 8/7/2022

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