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YellaWood 500 Picks, Odds & Predictions 10/3/2021

by Guy Bruhn - 9/30/2021

nascar picks Joey Logano predictions best bet odds

YellaWood 500

Sunday, October 3, 2021

2:00 PM EST

Talladega Superspeedway

Talladega, AL

NBC

Talladega Speedway is the location where the 105th version of the YellaWood 500 will take place. This is the second race of the Round of 12 in the playoffs for the NASCAR Cup Series. The South Point 400 was the first one and took place last weekend. Speaking of last weekend, Denny Hamlin was able to get the win, putting him 14 points behind the 2021 Drivers' Champion, Kyle Larson. Speaking of Kyle Larson, he finished in the 10th spot last weekend, which came as a big surprise to us, as Vegas had Larson as their favorite.

Talladega runs 2.66 miles and is an exciting place to race. It's going to be exciting and give the fans some great action this weekend. Add playoff pressure, and you've got yourself and exciting prospect this weekend.

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South Point 400 Results

Stage 1 started with Kyle Larson on the pole, but he didn't hold the position for long. Both Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney quickly passed Larson and held the lead until the first competition caution at Lap 26. Coming off pit road, Hamlin was able to take the lead when the flag went green. This wouldn't last long as Kyle Larson would come back around and take the lead. He wouldn't relinquish the lead and ended up taking the Stage 1 win.

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During the stage break, Denny Hamlin was able to win the race off pit road to take the lead. Kyle Larson wasn't ready to accept that and was able to take the high line to get the lead back. However, before the first caution for cause came out, William Byron was able to take the high line and take over the lead. The caution I'm speaking of came when Joey Gase spun into the wall because of a tire blowing. Gase was taken to the hospital for further evaluation. During the caution, all of the Hendrick Motorsports team decided to pit, and their gamble didn't pay dividends. Everyone else was able to stay out and make it the rest of the way with their current fuel. Denny Hamlin would end up winning the stage.

In the Final Stage, Denny Hamlin would start off with the lead. Martin Truex Jr. would make an appearance at the front of the pack; however, Hamlin was able to reclaim that lead just a few laps later. In all, Hamlin held off Chase Elliot at the end to take the win in the second race of the Round of 12.

NASCAR Cup Standings

As we sit, Denny Hamlin is sitting atop the Playoff standings with 2 Playoff wins and 5 stage wins. He is 14 points back in total points from Kyle Larson who has one Playoff win and 3 stage wins. Kyle Busch sits in the third spot while Martin Truex Jr and Ryan Blaney round out the top 5.

YellaWood 500 Odds

Denny Hamlin - +800
Joey Logano - +950
Ryan Blaney - +1000
Chase Elliott - +1050
Brad Keselowski - +1300
William Byron - +1400
Kyle Larson - +1500
Kevin Harvick - +1600
Kyle Busch - +1600
Aric Almirola - +1800
Alex Bowman - +2000
Kurt Busch - +2000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - +2000
Austin Dillon - +2500
Christopher Bell - +2500
Martin Truex Jr. - +2500
Tyler Reddick - +2500

Denny Hamlin is a slight favorite in this race because of his recent success at Talladega. He's already punched his ticket to the Round of 8 and looks primed to keep it going. He didn't win a race during the regular season but has already won 2 of the 4 races in the Playoffs. What's even more impressive is his 3.25 average finish in the Playoffs so far. We think he can do it again.

Guy's Pick: Take Denny Hamlin (+800)

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