Toyota Save Mart 350 Picks, Odds & Predictions 6/6/2021

by Guy Bruhn - 6/3/2021

Race: Toyota Save Mart 350

Date: Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 4:00 PM EST

Location: Sonoma Raceway

TV: FS1

This week we leave the ovals once again and head to the winding roads of Sonoma Raceway in California. This track is a 12-turn road course that stretches 2.52 miles. There are many sharp corners that are preceded by relatively long and straight runs. With that being said, this will be the first visit to the state of California by NASCAR since the pandemic started. The last time they were in the Golden State was March of 2020 for the Auto club 400 at Fontana and this will be the first time at Sonoma Raceway since June of 2019.

This is the third of seven road course events in the NASCAR Cup Series that has been scheduled in 2021. History will tell us the drivers that have fared well on these kinds of courses and the ones who been historically successful at Sonoma will have a definite advantage over the field this weekend.

Coca-Cola 600 Recap

Kyle Larson was the driver to lead the field into this one. Not a lot happened in this first stage with the Hendrick Motorsports drivers were dominating early. Some drivers chose to pit in this stage and others like Brad Keselowski and Matt DiBenedetto tried to wait it out for a caution that never came and eventually had to pit anyways. Kyle Larson would end up lapping half of the field and earned the Stage 1 win.

Stage 2 started like Stage 1 in that Kyle Larson led the field and he would stay in the lead until about 30 laps in. At that point, Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott would make a move to take the lead. Kurt Busch would end up having an oil belt break on him and he had to avoid colliding with multiple cars to get through to the garage. After the green flag pit stops, Kyle Larson was able to reclaim his lead. Kurt Busch would get back on the track, but immediately blow his engine which would end his day. Larson would lose the lead for a short period as Alex Bowman used a two-tire pit stop to get the lead, but Larson would reclaim it and win the Stage 2.

Stage 3 would end just like stage 2 with Kyle Larson winning. Heading into the final stage, Larson was back on a roll. He completely dominated the race from start to finish. He would end up taking the checkered flag by over 10 seconds.

2021 Cup Series Standings Update

This race would give Kyle Larson his second win of the season and put him in a great spot heading into the Playoffs. He sits in second place of the NASCAR Playoff standings and has the second highest total of points for the season behind Denny Hamlin. There are currently 11 spots filled in the Playoff outlook with the likes of Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick and Austin Dillon on the outside looking in. They'll all be looking to race well this weekend and get their spot in the Playoffs.

Toyota Save Mart 350 Odds

Chase Elliott - +225
Martin Truex Jr. - +500
Kyle Larson - +600
Kyle Busch - +1,000
William Byron - +1,200
Denny Hamlin - +1,400
Kevin Harvick - +1,600
Joey Logano - +1,600
Ryan Blaney - +2,000
Alex Bowman - +2,000
Brad Keselowski - +2,000
Christopher Bell - +2,800
Tyler Reddick - +3,300
Kurt Busch - +3,500
Chase Briscoe - +6,600
Ross Chastain - +6,600
Matt DiBenedetto - +6,600
Michael McDowell - +6,600
Chris Buescher - +8,000
Cole Custer - +8,000
Austin Dillon - +8,000

Chase Elliott is the favorite for a reason. He's won five of the last seven Cup Series races on road courses. In 14 total road course races in the Cup Series, Elliott has seven top-5 finishes and six career wins. Martin Truex Jr. is also looking to get another win to add to his NASCAR leading total. He has the second-best average rating in the last 10 road course races. That said, Chase Elliott has been so dominant on courses like that, it's hard to go against him.

Guy's Pick: Chase Elliott - (+225)

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Toyota Save Mart 350 Picks, Odds & Predictions 6/6/2021

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