Geico 500 Picks, Odds & Predictions 4/25/2021

by Guy Bruhn - 4/22/2021

Ryan Blaney Talladega Superspeedway Nascar

Race: Geico 500

Date: Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 2:00 PM EST

Location: Talladega Superspeedway

TV: FOX

Talladega's legendary superspeedway is the location of this weekend's NASCAR race. There aren't many other tracks that inspire as much enthusiasm as this one. It could be because of the high number of crashes that take place or the record setting speeds attained while on the track, but whatever it is, we're looking forward to it this weekend.

This race is 188 laps of great racing with the first two stages consisting of 60 laps each and the remaining laps for the final stage.

Toyota Owners 400 Recap

The Toyota Owners 400 was raced a bit differently than the previous two short tracks. In the end, Alex Bowman was able to take the checkered flag.

Martin Truex Jr. would lead the field into the green and things went smoothly until about 30 laps in when their was a competition caution. When everyone was heading to pit road Denny Hamlin's team had an excellent stop and was able to get him out first to take the lead. The rest of the first stage was pretty uneventful with no cautions and Hamlin taking the stage.

Early in the second stage, Truex Jr. was able to earn back the lead. It wasn't until about 600 laps in that we had our first natural caution and it was caused by Ryan Newman spinning out during a round of pitstops. During this caution, Brad Keselowski made his first and only stop of the stage and it ended up being a terrible decision as he was lapped by Hamlin towards the end of the stage. Hamlin ended up winning the second stage as well.

Hamlin led the field into the final stage, but was soon overtaken by Joey Logano. Kyle Busch was in the in the running until he was called for a line violation. In addition, Kevin Harvick hit the wall after a blown rear right tire with less than 20 laps to go. Denny Hamlin's pit crew were dominate again and got him out of pit road with a lead, but once again, he wouldn't be able to hold onto that lead. Alex Bowman ended up getting a great restart that would take him from third to first place and he ended up getting his first win of the season.

2021 Cup Series Standings Update

The win for Alex Bowman would push him to the 13th spot in the points standings with 236 points. Denny Hamlin's 2nd place finish would give him a bigger lead in the points standings and put him up 81 points over Martin Truex Jr. Joey Logano sits one point behind Truex Jr. in 3rd place and the top five is rounded out by William Byron (310 points) and Ryan Blaney (304 points).

Geico 500 Odds

Denny Hamlin - +650
Joey Logano - +900
Ryan Blaney - +1,000
Chase Elliott - +1,100
Brad Keselowski - +1,100
Aric Almirola - +1,500
Kurt Busch - +1,600
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - +1,600
Alex Bowman - +1,800
Kyle Busch - +1,800
William Byron - +2,000
Kevin Harvick - +2,000
Kyle Larson - +2,200
Tyler Reddick - +2,200
Martin Truex Jr. - +2,200
Christopher Bell - +2,500
Ryan Newman - +3,000
Austin Dillon - +3,300
Ryan Preece - +3,500
Erik Jones - +4,000

It's truly not a surprise that Denny Hamlin is once again the favorite for a race this year. In his last 12 races at Talladega, Hamlin has six top-ten finishes. That said, he hasn't been that consistent and has failed to have back to back top-ten finishes here since 2010. His average finish here is 17.71 which puts him in 14th place among active drivers.

You don't see Kevin Harvick with these kinds of odds very often and we would suggest taking them in this race. While he hasn't been necessarily strong in Talladega, the speed has always been there on this track and Harvick has been flying.

Guy's Pick: Kevin Harvick - (+2000)

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