Geico 500 Picks, Odds, & Predictions 6/21/2020

by Josh Schonwald - 6/19/2020

Race: Geico 500

Date: Sunday, June 21, 2020 at 12:00 PM EST

Location: Talladega Superspeedway

TV: Fox

NASCAR returns to Alabama for the Geico 500 on Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway. The track is the longest oval on the circuit (2.66 miles), just ahead of Daytona (2.5 miles). "Dega", as the locals call it, is an asphalt track whose turns are about 33 degrees. Look for very fast speeds at Talladega, as it boasts the fastest recorded speed on a NASCAR oval course when Rusty Wallace was clocked at 216 mph in 2004.

The standings for the Cup Series Championship are extremely tight for the first time in awhile after Kevin Harvick finished 26th at the Dixie Vodka 400 on Saturday. He was only able to net 11 points while Chase Elliot earned 50 points by finishing 2nd. Elliot now trails Harvick by only 8 points in the standings. Elliot has been extremely consistent lately while Harvick has had a few hiccups, and it's allowed Chase to inch closer each week. Elliot has eight top 10 finishes in 12 races this season, trailing Harvick (9 Top 10 finishes) by only 1 in that department. Joey Logano was unable to take advantage of Harvick's tough day, as he too struggled by finishing 27th. Logano only netted 10 points on the day and now trails Harvick by 29 points. Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney round out the Top 5 in the standings, earning 412 and 411 points respectively. Denny Hamlin, who won his 3rd race of the year on Sunday, is now in 7th place overall in the standings.

Dixie Vodka 400 Results

Denny Hamlin won his 3rd race of the season with his victory at Miami on Sunday. Hamlin was in control for a lot of the race, leading 137 laps while earning 60 points toward the Cup Series Championship. Hamlin started 1st as well, losing the lead only to Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliot, and Joey Logano. Blaney led for 70 laps while Elliot and Logano both led for 27 laps. In total there were 17 lead changes in the race. Elliot finished second while Blaney came in behind him in 3rd place. Tyler Reddick and Aric Almirola rounded out the Top 5 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Both drivers started low, with Almirola starting 21st and Reddick starting in the 24th spot. Elliot, Blaney, and Reddick were all awarded 50 points toward the Cup Series Championship while Almirola netted 39 pts. The race had 6 caution flags that consumed 27 laps. Kyle Busch finished 6th after starting 4th. The final 30 laps of the race were never really in doubt as Hamlin held the lead. He also won the 1st stage, making him the first driver this year to win both stages and the race. It was 44th career win. Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. (who finished 12th) were two of the more disappointing drivers on Sunday. Harvick was a non-factor all day and Truex didn't lead a lap all afternoon. Jimmie Johnson was also a non-factor, finishing 16th. His losing streak continues and he's not showing any signs of returning to the form we were accustomed to seeing from him. I wouldn't spend too much of your money on him unless he shows more consistency.

Geico 500 Odds

Chase Elliott +800
Joey Logano +800
Denny Hamlin +1,000
Brad Keselowski +1,000
Ryan Blaney +1,100
Kyle Busch +1,100
Kevin Harvick +1,400
Martin Truex Jr.+1,400
Kurt Busch +1,500
Aric Almirola +1,600
Alex Bowman +2,000
Jimmie Johnson +2,000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2,000
Clint Bowyer +2,500

Who will win this event at Talladega? Elliot and Logano are both good choices, but I'm going to go against the grain and pick Ryan Blaney. He has six Top 5 finishes so far this year with no wins and I think that changes on Sunday.

Josh's Pick: Take Ryan Blaney (+1,100)

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Geico 500 Picks, Odds, & Predictions 6/21/2020

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