Virginia Cavaliers vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, 10/21/2023 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Virginia Cavaliers vs North Carolina Tar Heels

Date: Saturday, October 21, 2023

Location: Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, NC

TV: CW NETWORK

Odds/Point Spread: Tar Heels (-21)

Total/Over-Under: 57

The North Carolina Tar Heels (6-0) will try to beat the Virginia Cavaliers (1-5) at Kenan Stadium on Saturday, October 21, 2023. Virginia opens this game as 21-point underdogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under is 57.

The Virginia Cavaliers step onto the field holding a record of 1-5 for this season. The last time they stepped onto the field, the Cavaliers stepped onto the field against the William & Mary Tribe and walked away with a win by a score of 27-13. Tony Muskett went 17/26 with 232 yds passing and 2 touchdowns. He had a QB rate of 158 and ended the game with 1 pick. Perris Jones led the offense in rushing for the Cavaliers with 12 carries for 134 yds (11.2 yds per attempt). The Virginia Cavaliers ended up rushing 45 times and tallied 221 yds, which earned them an average of 4.9 yds per attempt. In all, they had 71 plays which totaled 453 yards. Virginia allowed 14 completions on 19 attempts for a total of 72 yards, and a completion rate of 73.7%. Against the run, the Cavaliers conceded 147 yds on 39 attempts, which is an average of 3.8 yds per rush surrendered.

Regarding scoring, the Virginia Cavaliers are averaging 22.3 points per outing. As a team they are averaging 99.5 yards on the ground which has them sitting 122nd in Division 1. The Cavaliers have earned 2,093 total yards this season. With reference to distribution of touchdowns, Virginia has compiled 10 touchdowns through the air and 6 rushing touchdowns. Virginia has a total of 118 1st downs as a team, and they have been called for 40 infractions for 336 yds. They have surrendered the ball 10 different times.

The Cavaliers rank 112th in the nation regarding team defense, allowing 31.7 points per game. The opposition is running for an average of 4.4 yards per rush and 177.0 yards on the ground per contest this year. For the year, they have given up 1,062 rushing yards through 6 games. Regarding passing yardage, the Cavaliers are giving up 1,217 yards which puts them in 22nd in college football. They are allowing 202.8 yards per outing through the air as well as giving up a completion percentage of 63.2%. During the season, they are granting 379.8 yards/game which has them sitting 72nd in Division 1. They have surrendered 9 touchdowns via the pass as well as 14 touchdowns running the ball.

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The Tar Heels come into this matchup with a record of 6-0 for this season. When they last stepped on the gridiron, the Tar Heels walked away with a victory by a final of 41-31 against the Miami Hurricanes. Drake Maye (4 TDs) ended the contest with 273 yds on 17/33 passing while his QB rate was 161. He didn't throw any interceptions and his average yards per attempt was 8.3. Omarion Hampton ran the football 24 times for 197 yds, walking away from the contest with 8.2 yards per carry for North Carolina. North Carolina ran for 5.5 yards per attempt, finishing the contest with 235 yards on 43 attempts. The Tar Heels finished the contest with a total of 508 yds and they ran 76 plays (6.7 yards per play). The Tar Heels passing defense allowed a completion rate of 63.3%, surrendering 391 yards on 31 out of 49 through the air. North Carolina allowed 27 rushing attempts for 91 yards (3.4 yds per carry).

Regarding their scoring prowess, the Tar Heels are sitting 16th in the nation by tallying 37.3 PPG. The North Carolina Tar Heels maintain an average of 501.3 yards/contest, which is good for 8th in college football. The North Carolina offense has 387 penalty yds on 39 violations, which is 67th in Division 1 in terms of making mistakes. They have thrown 4 interceptions while conceding 1 fumbles and they have been able to tally 153 first downs. During the season to this point, the Tar Heels have earned 1,902 yards through the air together with holding an average of 317.0 throwing yards per game, which ranks 11th in the country. They are averaging 184.3 yards per game via the rush and have rushed for 1,106 yards for this year.

The Tar Heels are allowing 21.0 PPG, which has them 44th in Division 1. North Carolina has surrendered a total of 680 rushing yards (113.3 yards per outing) and 8 touchdowns via the rush this season. This year, they have surrendered 126 total points. They have conceded 6 touchdowns from the passing game as well as 245.8 yards per game, which has them sitting 93rd in the nation. The Tar Heels defense has participated in 405 plays, which ranks 44th in college football. Their defense has totaled 3 fumbles recovered and 9 interceptions on the campaign.

Who will win tonight's Cavaliers/Tar Heels college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Tar Heels -21

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