Toledo Rockets vs UMass Minutemen Prediction, 10/7/2023 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toledo Rockets vs UMass Minutemen

Date: Saturday, October 7, 2023

Location: Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, MA

TV: ESPNU

Odds/Point Spread: Minutemen (+20)

Total/Over-Under: 59

The UMass Minutemen (1-5) are hosting the Toledo Rockets (4-1) at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium on Saturday, October 7, 2023. Toledo opens this contest as 20-point favorites. The total is set at 59.

The Toledo Rockets come into this matchup with a record of 4-1 for this year. In their last matchup, the Rockets faced the NIU Huskies and went home with a win by a final score of 35-33. DeQuan Finn went 16/20 with 281 yds through the air and 2 TDs. He had a quarterback rate of 231 and finished the game without throwing a pick. Peny Boone was the best rusher for the Rockets with 16 attempts for 113 yards (7.1 yds per attempt). The Toledo Rockets ran the ball a total of 43 times and had 261 yds, earning them an average of 6.1 yds per carry. On the day, they tallied 63 plays which totaled 542 yards. Toledo allowed 21 completions on 31 attempts for a total of 258 yards, and a completion rate of 67.7%. On the ground, the Rockets conceded 186 yards on 32 attempts, which averages out to 5.8 yards per run surrendered.

Concerning getting in the endzone, the Toledo Rockets are sitting at 40.8 points per outing. As a unit they're maintaining an average of 223.4 yards on the ground which is 9th in college football. The Rockets have attained 2,325 total yards this year. In terms of getting the ball in the endzone, Toledo has compiled 14 passing touchdowns and 13 touchdowns via the ground. Toledo has tallied 123 1st downs as an offense, and they have been flagged for 38 penalties for 328 yds. They have turned the ball over 9 different times.

Concerning yards through the air, the Rockets are giving up 952 yds which has them sitting in 33rd in the nation. They have given up 190.4 yards per game through the air and allowed a completion percentage of 58.6%. For the year, they have yielded 344.6 yards/outing putting them at 51st in college football. They have yielded 5 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 6 touchdowns via the ground game. Opposing teams are running for an average of 4.0 yards per rushing attempt and 154.2 rushing yards per contest on the campaign. During the season, they have allowed 771 running yards through 5 games. The Rockets are ranked 52nd in Division 1 when it comes to team defense, allowing 22.8 PPG.

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The Minutemen come into this game with a record of 1-5 for this season. When they last stepped on the field, the Minutemen took a loss by a score of 52-28 when they played the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Taisun Phommachanh (1 TD) ended the game with 269 yards on 29/38 through the air while his QB rating was 139.2. He tossed 1 interception and his average yards per pass attempt was 7.1. Kay'ron Adams carried the ball 13 times for 41 yds, finishing the game with 3.2 yards per carry for UMass. UMass ran for 4.5 yds per attempt, finishing the game with 112 yards on 25 carries. The Minutemen finished the game with a total of 381 yds and they ran 63 plays (6.0 yds per play). The Minutemen pass defense allowed a completion percentage of 80.0%, surrendering 383 yds on 20 for 25 passing. UMass gave up 40 running attempts for 173 yards (4.3 yards per carry).

When it comes to their ability to score points, the Minutemen rank 85th in college football scoring 26.5 points per contest. The UMass Minutemen are averaging 389.3 yards per game, which is good for 73rd in D-1. The UMass offense has compiled 507 penalty yards on 54 infractions, which is good for 1st in the country in terms of making mistakes. They have tossed 6 interceptions while conceding 3 fumbles and they have earned 112 first downs. Over the course of the season thus far, the Minutemen have a total of 1,504 yards through the air along with holding an average of 250.7 throwing yards per outing, which has them sitting 55th in the country. They hold an average of 138.7 yards via the ground game and have toted the ball for 832 yards in total.

The Minutemen are allowing 39.2 points per game, ranking them 132nd in Division 1. UMass has allowed the opposition a total of 1,166 yards rushing (194.3 yards per game) and 13 touchdowns via the rush this season. This season, they have relinquished 235 total points. They have allowed the opposition 16 touchdowns from the passing game in addition to 247.5 yards/outing, which has them in 97th in college football. The Minutemen defense has been on the field for 362 plays, which is good for 115th in college football. They have tallied 3 fumbles and 4 interceptions for the season.

Who will win tonight's Rockets/Minutemen college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Minutemen +20

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