New Mexico State Aggies vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Prediction, 11/11/2023 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New Mexico State Aggies vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023

Location: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, KY

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: Hilltoppers (-6)

Total/Over-Under: 48.5

Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium is the site where the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-4) will take on the New Mexico State Aggies (7-3) on Saturday, November 11, 2023. New Mexico State opens as 6-point underdogs. The total has been set at 48.5.

The New Mexico State Aggies head into this game 7-3 this season. The last time they took the field, the Aggies went up against the MTSU Blue Raiders and walked away with a win by a score of 13-7. Ahmonte Watkins was the rushing leader for the Aggies with 5 attempts for 68 yards (13.6 yards per attempt). Diego Pavia finished 16/31 with 220 yds passing. He had a QB rating of 104.8 and finished the game with 1 pick. In the running game, the Aggies gave up 168 yds on 31 attempts, which is an average of 5.4 yards per run allowed. New Mexico State allowed 20 completions on 36 attempts for 178 yards, and a completion percentage of 55.6%. At the end of the game, they tallied 68 plays which gave them a total of 402 yards. The New Mexico State Aggies ran the rock 37 times and tallied 182 yds, which had them averaging 4.9 yards per carry.

The Aggies have tallied 4,244 total yards for the season. When it comes to distribution of touchdowns, New Mexico State has amassed 18 passing touchdowns and 16 touchdowns via the ground. They have given the ball to the opposition 9 times. New Mexico State has compiled 198 first downs as a team, and they have been flagged for 57 penalties for 572 yards. Offensively they average 202.9 yards via the ground game which has them sitting 15th in Division 1. When it comes to scoring points, the New Mexico State Aggies are sitting at 27.8 PPG.

When it comes to yards through the air, the Aggies have given up 2,365 yds which has them ranked 116th in the country. They have relinquished 236.5 yards per outing through the air as well as giving up a completion percentage of 61.8%. Overall, they are giving up 369.1 yards/game ranking them 64th in D-1. They have relinquished 10 touchdowns through the air as well as 14 touchdowns running the ball. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 4.0 yards per running attempt and 132.6 yards on the ground per game for the campaign. Overall, they have given up 1,326 yards via the ground game in 10 contests. The Aggies are sitting in 30th in college football when it comes to team defense, allowing 20.0 PPG.

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The Hilltoppers head into this game 5-4 for this season. When they last stepped on the field, the Hilltoppers got the win with a final of 21-13 against the UTEP Miners. Elijah Young ran the football 12 times for 139 yards, finishing the contest with 11.6 yards per carry for Western Kentucky. Austin Reed (1 TD) ended the contest with 102 yds on 11/20 through the air while his quarterback rate was 104.3. He had 1 interception and his average yards per attempt was 5.1. Western Kentucky conceded 40 run attempts for 154 yds (3.9 yds per carry). The Hilltoppers secondary conceded a completion percentage of 58.3%, relinquishing 214 yds on 14 for 24 through the air. The Hilltoppers ended up finishing with 280 yards while they ran 52 plays (5.4 yards per play). Western Kentucky ended up running for 5.6 yds per attempt, finishing the game with 178 yds on 32 attempts.

When discussing their scoring prowess, the Hilltoppers are ranking 61st in Division 1 averaging 28.9 PPG. The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have an average of 382.6 yards/outing, which ranks them 69th in the nation. The Western Kentucky offense has totaled 357 yards of penalties on 43 violations, which ranks 114th in college football in terms of helping out the opposition. They have given away 7 picks while losing 4 fumbles and they have recorded 166 1st downs. For the year thus far, the Hilltoppers have compiled 2,444 passing yards as well as an average of 271.6 passing yards per contest, ranking them 34th in the nation. They maintain an average of 111.0 yards via the ground game and have run for 999 yards in total.

The Hilltoppers are allowing 27.7 PPG, ranking them 83rd in D-1. Western Kentucky has conceded a total of 1,903 yards rushing (211.4 yards/game) and 17 touchdowns on the ground so far this year. This season, they have conceded 249 total points. They have allowed 13 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 244.7 yards per outing, which has them sitting 102nd in D-1. The Hilltoppers defense has taken part in 681 plays, which ranks 128th in college football. Their defense has compiled 9 fumbles recovered and 10 picks on the year.

Who will win tonight's Aggies/Hilltoppers college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Hilltoppers -6

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