New Mexico State Aggies vs Liberty Flames Prediction, 12/1/2023 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New Mexico State Aggies vs Liberty Flames

Date: Friday, December 1, 2023

Location: Williams Stadium (VA) in Lynchburg, VA

TV: CBSSN

Odds/Point Spread: Flames (-14)

Total/Over-Under: 54

Williams Stadium is the location where the Liberty Flames (12-0) will go up against the New Mexico State Aggies (10-3) on Friday, December 1, 2023 in the Conference USA Championship. Liberty opens this game as 14-point favorites. The over/under comes in at 54.

The New Mexico State Aggies step onto the field holding a record of 10-3 this season. The last time they took the field, the Aggies faced the Jacksonville State Gamecocks and took home the win by a score of 20-17. Diego Pavia led the offense in rushing for the Aggies with 19 carries for 68 yards (3.6 yds per attempt). Diego Pavia finished 23/34 with 269 yards through the air and 1 TD. He had a quarterback rate of 132 and walked away from the contest with 2 interceptions. Against the rush, the Aggies conceded 85 yds on 28 tries, which averages out to 3.0 yards per run allowed. New Mexico State surrendered 17 completions on 30 attempts for 248 yds, and a completion percentage of 56.7%. For the game, they had 82 plays for 455 yds. The New Mexico State Aggies rushed the ball a total of 48 different times and totaled 186 yards, which had them averaging 3.9 yards per carry.

In terms of scoring points, the New Mexico State Aggies have an average of 28.2 PPG. As a team they're averaging 204.7 yards via the ground game ranking them 12th in D-1. The Aggies have tallied 5,487 total yards for this campaign. When it comes to scoring touchdowns, New Mexico State has compiled 23 touchdowns via the pass and 20 touchdowns on the ground. New Mexico State has compiled 268 1st downs as a unit, and they have been flagged for 83 infractions for 801 yds. They have surrendered the football 13 different times.

When talking about passing yardage, the Aggies are giving up 3,032 yards which has them sitting in 113th in D-1. They are allowing 233.2 yards per outing via the pass and allowed a completion percentage of 61.5%. In total, they are surrendering 359.5 yards per contest putting them at 49th in D-1. They have surrendered 14 touchdowns through the air as well as 16 touchdowns running the ball. They are allowing an average of 3.9 yards per rush and 126.4 rushing yards per game this year. For the year, they have conceded 1,643 yards via the running game in 13 outings. The Aggies rank 21st in the nation concerning their opponents scoring, giving up 19.7 points per game.

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The Flames come into this game with a record of 12-0 for this season. When they last stepped on the gridiron, the Flames got the victory with a final of 42-28 against the UTEP Miners. Quinton Cooley ran the football 13 times for 83 yards, ending the contest with 6.4 yds per carry for Liberty. Kaidon Salter (1 touchdown) finished the game with 22 yards on 4/11 passing while his QB rate was 83.2. He didn't throw any picks and his average yards per pass attempt was 2.0. Liberty conceded 28 rush attempts for 50 yards (1.8 yds per carry). The Flames pass defense conceded a completion percentage of 50.0%, surrendering 221 yds on 14 for 28 through the air. The Flames finished the contest with a total of 469 yds while running 75 plays (6.3 yds per play). Liberty ran for 7.1 yds per carry, finishing with 441 yds on 62 attempts.

When discussing how much they score, the Flames are ranked 6th in D-1 averaging 40.1 PPG. The Liberty Flames maintain an average of 498.5 yards per contest, which has them ranked 5th in Division 1. The Liberty offense has totaled 766 yards of penalties on 77 infractions, ranking them 42nd in the country in terms of giving up free yards. They have given away 5 interceptions while letting opponents recover 11 fumbles and they have tallied 298 1st downs. During this campaign to this point, the Flames have thrown for a total of 2,437 passing yards in addition to holding an average of 203.1 passing yards per contest, ranking them 95th in college football. They average 295.4 yards per game via the ground game and have run for 3,545 yards for this year.

Liberty has conceded a total of 1,274 yards rushing (106.2 yards per contest) as well as 11 touchdowns rushing on the year. They have allowed 22 touchdowns from the passing game and 238.3 yards per game, which puts them in 87th in Division 1. They have 4 fumbles and 20 interceptions for the year. The Flames defense has been on the field for 778 plays, which ranks them 50th in college football. The Flames are conceding 21.7 PPG, which has them sitting 36th in Division 1. Over the course of the season, they have relinquished 260 total points.

Who will win tonight's Aggies/Flames college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Aggies +14

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