New Mexico State Aggies vs Fresno State Bulldogs Prediction, 12/16/2023 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New Mexico State Aggies vs Fresno State Bulldogs

Date: Saturday, December 16, 2023

Location: University Stadium (NM) in Albuquerque, NM

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Bulldogs (-1)

Total/Over-Under: 51.5

The Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) will try to beat the New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) at University Stadium (NM) on Saturday, December 16, 2023 in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl. Fresno State opens this game as 1-point favorites from oddsmakers. The betting total is set at 51.5.

The New Mexico State Aggies come into this matchup with a record of 10-4 this year. The last time they took the field, the Aggies faced the Liberty Flames and ended up losing by a score of 49-35. Diego Pavia finished 11/16 with 188 yards through the air and 3 TDs. He had a quarterback rate of 229.3 and finished the contest without throwing an interception. Diego Pavia was the best rusher for the Aggies with 5 carries for 45 yds (9.0 yds per carry). The New Mexico State Aggies ended up running the ball 28 times and totaled 177 yds, earning them an average of 6.3 yds per carry. In the game, they ran 63 plays which converted into 499 yds. New Mexico State gave up 20 pass completions on 25 tries for a total of 319 yds, and a completion rate of 80.0%. In the running game, the Aggies gave up 393 yards on 45 tries, which averages out to 8.7 yards per rush surrendered.

When it comes to getting in the endzone, the New Mexico State Aggies hold an average of 28.7 points per contest. As a unit they are averaging 202.7 yards on the ground which is 12th in the country. The Aggies have tallied 5,986 total yards this season. In terms of scoring touchdowns, New Mexico State has compiled 28 touchdowns via the pass and 21 rushing touchdowns. New Mexico State has earned 295 1st downs as an offense, and they have committed 90 infractions for 876 yards. They have given the ball to the opposition 14 different times.

When it comes to yards via the pass, the Aggies are giving up 3,350 yards which has them sitting in 125th in the nation. They are allowing 239.3 yards per game via the pass in addition to conceding a completion percentage of 62.8%. Overall, they have allowed 384.7 yards per game ranking them 73rd in college football. They have surrendered 15 touchdowns by air in addition to 21 touchdowns on the ground. Opposing teams are running for an average of 4.4 yards per rushing attempt and 145.4 rushing yards per contest for the campaign. Overall, they have conceded 2,036 yards via the running game in 14 games. The Aggies are ranked 35th in the country when it comes to team defense, giving up 21.8 PPG.

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The Bulldogs step onto the field holding a record of 8-4 for this year. The last time they took the field, the Bulldogs took a loss by a final score of 33-18 against the San Diego State Aztecs. Malik Sherrod carried the ball 15 times for 138 yds, ending the game with 9.2 yards per attempt for Fresno State. Mikey Keene ended the game with 190 yards on 21/36 through the air while his quarterback rating was 97.1. He tossed 1 interception and his average yards per attempt was 5.3. Fresno State relinquished 53 rushing attempts for 226 yards (4.3 yards per carry). The Bulldogs passing defense gave up a completion percentage of 65.4%, relinquishing 189 yards on 17 for 26 through the air. The Bulldogs finished the game with 341 yds while running 56 plays (6.1 yds per play). Fresno State rushed for 7.9 yards per attempt, finishing the game with 151 yards on 19 attempts.

In relation to their ability to score points, the Bulldogs are sitting 50th in Division 1 scoring 29.9 points per outing. The Fresno State Bulldogs maintain an average of 378.4 yards per contest, which has them sitting 71st in the nation. The Fresno State offense has totaled 457 yards of penalties on 52 infractions, which is 123rd in college football in terms of making mistakes. They have given away 11 picks while allowing opponents to recover 1 fumbles and they have been able to earn 252 first downs. For the season to this point, the Bulldogs have earned 3,289 yards through the air not to mention holding an average of 274.1 throwing yards per game, ranking them 29th in college football. They average 104.3 run yards per game and have toted the ball for 1,252 yards for the season.

The Bulldogs are surrendering 24.6 points per game, which puts them 56th in Division 1. Fresno State has allowed a total of 2,018 yards on the ground (168.2 yards per game) and 16 touchdowns by way of the ground game this year. In total, they have relinquished 295 points in total. They have given up 19 touchdowns via the pass and 216.9 yards/outing, which has them in 54th in D-1. The Bulldogs defense has taken part in 841 plays, ranking them 91st in Division 1. Their defense has 6 fumbles recovered and 16 picks this season.

Who will win tonight's Aggies/Bulldogs college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Aggies +1

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