Navy Midshipmen vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, 11/25/2023 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Navy Midshipmen vs SMU Mustangs

Date: Saturday, November 25, 2023

Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX

TV: ESPN2

Odds/Point Spread: Mustangs (-19)

Total/Over-Under: 47

The SMU Mustangs (9-2) will compete against the Navy Midshipmen (5-5) at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday, November 25, 2023. SMU opens this matchup as 19-point favorites. The betting total is set at 47.

The Navy Midshipmen head into this matchup 5-5 for this year. In their last contest, the Midshipmen took on the East Carolina Pirates and went home with a win by a final score of 10-0. Alex Tecza was the rushing leader for the Midshipmen with 24 carries for 94 yards (3.9 yards per carry). Xavier Arline connected on 10/11 with 102 yds passing. He had a QB rate of 168.8 and finished the game without throwing a pick. Against the rush, the Midshipmen gave up 34 yds on 22 attempts, which averages out to 1.5 yds per rush surrendered. Navy allowed 24 completions on 38 tries for a total of 155 yards, and a completion rate of 63.2%. In all, they tallied 61 plays which gave them a total of 276 yards. The Navy Midshipmen ran the rock 50 different times and accumulated 174 yards, which came out to an average of 3.5 yards per carry.

When it comes to putting points on the board, the Navy Midshipmen are averaging 18.7 PPG. As a team they're maintaining an average of 202.3 yards in the run game ranking them 14th in the country. The Midshipmen have earned 3,041 yards in total for the year. When it comes to getting the ball in the endzone, Navy has amassed 9 touchdowns through the air and 14 rushing touchdowns. Navy has amassed 143 1st downs as an offense, and they have been called for 56 penalties for 457 yards. They have surrendered the ball 9 times.

Concerning passing yards, the Midshipmen are giving up 2,275 yds which ranks them 35th in the country. They are conceding 227.5 yards per game via the pass and allowed a completion percentage of 66.2%. Over the course of this year, they are surrendering 349.8 yards/game which has them ranked 43rd in the country. They have surrendered 14 touchdowns through the air in addition to 9 touchdowns on the ground. The opposition is running for an average of 3.6 yards per attempt on the ground and 122.3 yards on the ground per game for the season. During the season, they have allowed 1,223 yards via the running game in 10 contests. The Midshipmen sit in 24th in the nation when it comes to team defense, giving up 19.3 points per game.

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The Mustangs come into this matchup with a record of 9-2 for this season. In their last game, the Mustangs went home victorious with a score of 38-34 against the Memphis Tigers. Preston Stone (2 touchdowns) ended the contest with 286 yards on 15/23 through the air while his quarterback rating was 198.4. He didn't toss any picks and his average yards per attempt was 12.4. LJ Johnson Jr. carried the ball 21 times for 115 yards, ending the contest with 5.5 yards per carry for SMU. SMU rushed for 3.8 yards per attempt, finishing with a total of 158 yards on 42 carries. The Mustangs finished the contest with a total of 444 yards while they ran 65 plays (6.8 yds per play). The Mustangs passing defense conceded a completion percentage of 68.6%, relinquishing 402 yards on 35 out of 51 passing. SMU surrendered 22 running attempts for 62 yards (2.8 yds per rush).

Regarding their ability to score points, the Mustangs currently rank 6th in college football scoring 40.3 points per outing. The SMU Mustangs average 470.5 yards per contest, which is good for 10th in D-1. The SMU offense has 439 yds of penalties on 50 violations, which has them sitting 116th in Division 1 in terms of hurting your team. They have thrown 6 picks while conceding 3 fumbles and they have been able to record 270 first downs. For the season so far, the Mustangs currently sit at 3,134 yards via the pass along with an average of 284.9 passing yards per game, ranking them 20th in Division 1. They hold an average of 185.6 yards per game on the ground and have run for 2,042 yards in total.

The Mustangs are conceding 18.0 points per game, ranking them 15th in the country. SMU has conceded a total of 1,232 rushing yards (112.0 yards per game) as well as 8 touchdowns rushing on the season. This season, they have relinquished 198 points in total. They have given up 17 touchdowns through the air in addition to 194.5 yards/game, ranking them 24th in D-1. The Mustangs defense has taken part in 736 plays, which is 68th in Division 1. Their defense has compiled 4 fumbles and 9 interceptions for the season.

Who will win tonight's Midshipmen/Mustangs college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Midshipmen +19

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