Florida Gators vs Kentucky Wildcats Prediction, 9/30/2023 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Florida Gators vs Kentucky Wildcats

Date: Saturday, September 30, 2023

Location: Kroger Field in Lexington, KY

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Wildcats (-3)

Total/Over-Under: 45.5

Kroger Field is where the Kentucky Wildcats (4-0) will go up against the Florida Gators (3-1) on Saturday, September 30, 2023. Kentucky opens as 3-point favorites. The betting total is set at 45.5.

The Florida Gators head into this matchup 3-1 this season. The last time they took the field, the Gators took on the Charlotte 49ers and notched a win by a score of 22-7. Graham Mertz connected on 21/24 with 284 yds passing and 1 TD. He had a quarterback rating of 200.7 and finished the contest without throwing a pick. Montrell Johnson led the offense in rushing for the Gators with 16 totes for 63 yds (3.9 yds per attempt). For the game, they ran 59 plays for 395 yards. The Florida Gators ran the ball a total of 35 different times and accumulated 111 yards, which earned them an average of 3.2 yards per attempt. Against the run, the Gators gave up 77 yards on 28 tries, which calculates to 2.8 yards per run surrendered. Florida conceded 14 pass completions on 25 tries for 133 yds, and a completion rate of 56.0%.

In terms of scoring, the Florida Gators are sitting at 27.8 points per game. As a unit they hold an average of 158.5 yards via the ground game which has them sitting 66th in Division 1. The Gators have earned 1,650 total yards this season. When it comes to scoring, Florida has amassed 4 passing touchdowns and 9 touchdowns on the ground. Florida has tallied 93 first downs as an offense, and they have been flagged for 23 penalties for 131 yds. They have turned the ball over 4 different times.

In terms of yards through the air, the Gators have given up 651 yds which has them ranked 14th in college football. They have surrendered 162.8 yards per game via the pass and allowed a completion percentage of 58.3%. For the year, they have surrendered 244.8 yards per game putting them at 5th in the nation. They have yielded 3 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 4 touchdowns via the ground game. They are allowing 2.9 yards per rush on the ground and 82.0 yards on the ground per game on the year. Overall, they have conceded 328 rushing yards through 4 games. The Gators are sitting in 19th in D-1 regarding team defense, conceding 13.5 points per game.

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The Wildcats head into this game 4-0 for this season. The last time they took the gridiron, the Wildcats got the victory with a final of 45-28 against the Vanderbilt Commodores. Re'Mahn Davis ran the ball 17 times for 78 yards, ending the contest with 4.6 yds per attempt for Kentucky. Devin Leary (1 touchdown) walked away from the game with 205 yds on 15/29 passing while his quarterback rate was 108.7. He threw 2 interceptions and his average yards per attempt was 7.1. Kentucky conceded 27 running attempts for 97 yds (3.6 yards per rush). The Wildcats pass defense conceded a completion percentage of 42.6%, surrendering 231 yards on 20 out of 47 through the air. The Wildcats finished the game with 365 yds and they ran 60 plays (6.1 yards per play). Kentucky ended up running for 5.2 yards per tote, finishing the game with 160 yds on 31 carries.

The Kentucky Wildcats are averaging 396.5 yards per contest, which has them ranked 65th in college football. The Kentucky offense has totaled 272 yards of penalties on 32 violations, which has them ranked 18th in D-1 in terms of hurting your team. They maintain an average of 131.5 yards per game via the ground game and have rushed for 526 yards for the season. They have given away 5 interceptions while conceding 2 fumbles and they have been able to tally 74 first downs. In relation to their ability to score points, the Wildcats rank 25th in the country holding an average of 38.0 points per game. For the season thus far, the Wildcats have a total of 1,060 passing yards along with an average of 265.0 passing yards per outing, which ranks 46th in the nation.

Kentucky has allowed the opposition a total of 310 rushing yards (77.5 yards per game) in addition to 4 touchdowns on the ground on the campaign. They have surrendered 3 touchdowns via the pass and 215.8 yards per contest, ranking them 63rd in the nation. They have compiled 4 fumbles and 4 interceptions on the year. The Wildcats defense has been on the field for 267 plays, which has them sitting 77th in Division 1. The Wildcats are giving up 15.5 PPG, which puts them 21st in the country. This year, they have allowed 62 points.

Who will win tonight's Gators/Wildcats college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Gators +3

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