Duke Blue Devils vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, 11/11/2023 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Duke Blue Devils vs North Carolina Tar Heels

Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023

Location: Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, NC

TV: ACCN

Odds/Point Spread: Tar Heels (-9)

Total/Over-Under: 50.5

Kenan Stadium is where the North Carolina Tar Heels (7-2) will meet the Duke Blue Devils (6-3) on Saturday, November 11, 2023. Duke is 9-point dogs. The over/under has been set at 50.5.

The Duke Blue Devils come into this matchup with a record of 6-3 this season. In their last game, the Blue Devils faced off with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and notched a win by a score of 24-21. Grayson Loftis connected on 7/19 with 86 yards passing and 1 touchdown. He had a QB rate of 81.7 and finished the game with 1 pick. Jaquez Moore was the best rusher for the Blue Devils with 11 totes for 76 yards (6.9 yards per carry). The Duke Blue Devils ended up rushing 41 different times and accrued 181 yds, which came out to an average of 4.4 yds per carry. In all, they ran 60 plays which gave them a total of 267 yds. Duke surrendered 16 pass completions on 19 attempts for a total of 241 yards, and a completion rate of 84.2%. Against the run, the Blue Devils gave up 159 yds on 47 attempts, which is 3.4 yards per rush surrendered.

The Blue Devils have earned 3,070 yards in total for the season. When it comes to getting the ball in the endzone, Duke has earned 7 passing touchdowns and 20 rushing touchdowns. They have surrendered the football 10 different times. Duke has accumulated 159 1st downs, and they have committed 50 infractions for 373 yds. Offensively they are averaging 180.0 yards on the ground which is 38th in Division 1. Regarding putting the ball in the endzone, the Duke Blue Devils are averaging 25.7 points per outing.

Concerning yards through the air, the Blue Devils have conceded 1,614 yds which has them sitting in 15th in college football. They are conceding 179.3 yards per game via the pass in addition to conceding a completion percentage of 60.5%. Over the course of this year, they have yielded 329.1 yards per outing which ranks them 28th in the country. They have allowed 5 touchdowns via the pass as well as 11 touchdowns via the ground game. They are giving up 4.1 yards per rushing attempt and 149.8 rushing yards per game this season. For the year, they have given up 1,348 rushing yards through 9 games. The Blue Devils rank 7th in college football in terms of their opponents scoring, conceding 15.7 PPG.

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The Tar Heels step onto the field holding a record of 7-2 for this season. The last time they took the gridiron, the Tar Heels walked away with a victory by a final of 59-7 when they faced the Campbell Fighting Camels. Drake Maye (4 TDs) finished the game with 244 yards on 16/23 through the air while his quarterback rating was 216.1. He didn't toss any picks and his average yards per pass attempt was 10.6. Omarion Hampton carried the ball 15 times for 144 yds, ending the game with 9.6 yards per carry for North Carolina. North Carolina rushed for 8.4 yards per attempt, finishing the contest with 276 yards on 33 attempts. The Tar Heels finished the contest with 594 yards and they ran 61 plays (9.7 yds per play). The Tar Heels pass defense allowed a completion percentage of 67.6%, surrendering 185 yds on 25 out of 37 through the air. North Carolina gave up 42 attempts on the ground for 102 yds (2.4 yds per carry).

The North Carolina Tar Heels average 518.8 yards/game, which is good for 3rd in the country. The North Carolina offense has accrued 608 penalty yards on 63 violations, which ranks them 27th in college football in terms of giving up free yards. They average 199.1 run yards per game and have rushed for 1,792 yards for the year. They have thrown 5 picks while surrendering 2 fumbles and they have been able to earn 230 first downs. Regarding their ability to score points, the Tar Heels currently rank 13th in college football maintaining an average of 39.1 points per contest. During this campaign to this point, the Tar Heels have compiled 2,877 yards via the pass as well as an average of 319.7 passing yards per contest, which has them sitting 8th in the country.

The Tar Heels are allowing 23.3 PPG, which has them ranked 50th in the nation. North Carolina has allowed a total of 1,361 yards on the ground (151.2 yards per contest) and 13 touchdowns on the ground for the campaign. Overall, they have conceded 210 points. They have given up 12 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 239.4 yards per game, which has them ranked 93rd in the country. The Tar Heels defense has taken the field for 647 plays, which ranks them 112th in D-1. They have compiled 7 fumbles recovered and 12 picks on the season.

Who will win tonight's Blue Devils/Tar Heels college football game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Tar Heels -9

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