Baylor Bears vs UCF Knights Prediction, 9/30/2023 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Baylor Bears vs UCF Knights

Date: Saturday, September 30, 2023

Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando, FL

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: Knights (-12)

Total/Over-Under: 56

FBC Mortgage Stadium is the location where the UCF Knights (3-1) will attempt to beat the Baylor Bears (1-3) on Saturday, September 30, 2023. Baylor opens this game as 12-point underdogs from oddsmakers. The total is set at 56.

The Baylor Bears come into this game with a record of 1-3 this season. In their last game, the Bears faced the Texas Longhorns and took a loss by a final of 38-6. Sawyer Robertson went 20/35 with 203 yds passing. He had a quarterback rating of 100.1 and walked away from the game with 1 interception. RJ Martinez led the offense in rushing for the Bears with 3 carries for 22 yards (7.3 yds per attempt). The Baylor Bears ran the football 31 different times and accounted for 60 yards, which had them averaging 1.9 yds per carry. In the game, they tallied 84 plays which converted into 365 yds. Baylor allowed 19 completions on 25 attempts for a total of 328 yds, and a completion percentage of 76.0%. Against the rush, the Bears gave up 175 yards on 34 tries, which calculates to 5.1 yards per rush surrendered.

When talking about putting points on the board, the Baylor Bears hold an average of 20.0 points per game. As a unit they maintain an average of 139.8 yards via the ground game which has them sitting 87th in D-1. The Bears have tallied 1,619 total yards over the course of this season. When it comes to distribution of touchdowns, Baylor has totaled 3 passing touchdowns and 5 rushing touchdowns. Baylor has compiled 81 1st downs, and they have committed 20 infractions for 116 yds. They have surrendered the ball 6 different times.

When talking about passing yardage, the Bears have given up 819 yds which has them ranked 51st in the country. They are allowing 204.8 yards per game via the pass and giving up a completion percentage of 62.2%. Over the course of this season, they are surrendering 376.0 yards per game which has them ranked 81st in the country. They have granted 4 touchdowns through the air in addition to 10 touchdowns on the ground. They are allowing an average of 4.6 yards per rushing attempt and 171.3 rushing yards per contest for the season. Overall, they have conceded 685 rushing yards through 4 games. The Bears are sitting in 85th in the nation in terms of their opponents scoring, allowing 26.8 PPG.

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The Knights come into this game with a record of 3-1 for this season. The last time they took the field, the Knights went home defeated by a final of 44-31 when they faced the Kansas State Wildcats. Timmy Mcclain (3 TDs) finished the contest with 264 yds on 14/24 passing while his quarterback rate was 183.7. He had 1 interception and his average yards per pass attempt was 11.0. Johnny Richardson carried the ball 6 times for 76 yards, ending the contest with 12.7 yards per attempt for UCF. UCF rushed for 4.2 yards per tote, finishing with 143 yds on 34 carries. The Knights finished the game with 407 yards while they ran 59 plays (6.9 yards per play). The Knights pass defense allowed a completion rate of 64.3%, relinquishing 255 yds on 27 for 42 through the air. UCF gave up 40 rushing attempts for 281 yds (7.0 yds per rush).

Regarding the points being put on the board, the Knights are 24th in D-1 by scoring 38.3 points per contest. The UCF Knights are averaging 565.0 yards/contest, which has them ranked 4th in the country. The UCF offense has racked up 218 yards of penalties on 28 violations, which ranks them 35th in the nation in terms of helping out the opposition. They have tossed 5 picks while losing 2 fumbles and they have recorded 105 1st downs. During this campaign to this point, the Knights have thrown for 1,219 passing yards as well as holding an average of 304.8 passing yards per game, ranking them 16th in Division 1. They average 260.3 run yards per game and have toted the ball for 1,041 yards for the season.

The Knights are relinquishing 20.0 PPG, ranking them 46th in college football. UCF has given up a total of 631 yards rushing (157.8 yards/game) as well as 8 touchdowns on the ground for the year. Overall, they have given up 80 points. They have conceded 2 touchdowns via the pass as well as 189.0 yards/outing, which has them ranked 37th in D-1. The Knights defense has taken part in 269 plays, which has them ranked 81st in Division 1. They have tallied 0 fumbles and 4 interceptions on the year.

Who will win tonight's Bears/Knights college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Knights -12

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