Baylor Bears vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction, 11/18/2023 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Baylor Bears vs TCU Horned Frogs

Date: Saturday, November 18, 2023

Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX

TV: BIG12|ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: Horned Frogs (-4)

Total/Over-Under: 58.5

The TCU Horned Frogs (4-6) are welcoming the Baylor Bears (3-7) at Amon G. Carter Stadium on Saturday, November 18, 2023. TCU is 4-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The total comes in at 58.5.

The Baylor Bears step onto the field holding a record of 3-7 for this season. In their last game, the Bears faced off with the Kansas State Wildcats and went home with a loss by a final score of 59-25. Blake Shapen went 22/45 with 253 yds passing and 4 touchdowns. He had a quarterback rating of 121 and finished the game with 1 pick. Dominic Richardson was the best rusher for the Bears with 17 carries for 89 yards (5.2 yards per carry). Once the final whistle blew, they had 82 plays which gave them 332 yds. The Baylor Bears ran the football 35 times and accrued 85 yards, which had them averaging 2.4 yards per tote. On the ground, the Bears conceded 183 yards on 37 tries, which averages out to 4.9 yds per run surrendered. Baylor gave up 21 completions on 34 attempts for 268 yds, and a completion rate of 61.8%.

Regarding scoring points, the Baylor Bears have an average of 22.9 points per game. Offensively they average 111.1 yards via the ground game which has them sitting 114th in the country. The Bears have earned 3,853 total yards for the season. In terms of scoring touchdowns, Baylor has earned 13 passing touchdowns and 11 touchdowns on the ground. Baylor has amassed 201 first downs offensively, and they have been flagged for 43 infractions for 288 yards. They have turned the ball over 15 times.

The Bears are ranked 116th in college football regarding team defense, conceding 32.4 points per contest. The opposition is running for 5.0 yards per run and 186.9 rushing yards per game on the season. Over the course of this season, they have conceded 1,869 yards via the ground game in 10 contests. When talking about yards through the air, the Bears have allowed 2,137 yards which has them ranked 47th in college football. They have conceded 213.7 yards per contest through the air as well as giving up a completion percentage of 63.3%. For the year, they are conceding 400.6 yards/outing ranking them 98th in D-1. They have surrendered 18 touchdowns by air and 21 touchdowns on the ground.

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The Horned Frogs come into this matchup with a record of 4-6 for this season. When they last played, the Horned Frogs took a loss by a final score of 29-26 when they played the Texas Longhorns. Emani Bailey ran the football 21 times for 98 yards, finishing the contest with 4.7 yds per attempt for TCU. Josh Hoover (2 touchdowns) finished the game with 302 yards on 24/36 through the air while his quarterback rate was 149.9. He threw 1 interception and his average yards per pass attempt was 8.4. TCU conceded 41 attempts on the ground for 165 yds (4.0 yds per rush). The Horned Frogs passing defense conceded a completion rate of 66.7%, surrendering 317 yds on 22 out of 33 passing. The Horned Frogs finished the contest with a total of 390 yards on 64 plays (6.1 yds per play). TCU rushed for 3.1 yards per carry, finishing the contest with 88 yds on 28 carries.

The TCU Horned Frogs hold an average of 454.9 yards/outing, which has them sitting 16th in D-1. The TCU offense has 526 penalty yds on 63 infractions, which is good for 46th in Division 1 in terms of giving up free yards. They maintain an average of 157.8 yards per game on the ground and have run for 1,578 yards for the year. They have tossed 14 picks while allowing opponents to recover 3 fumbles and they have been able to earn 252 1st downs. Regarding their ability to score points, the Horned Frogs are sitting 58th in college football by scoring 28.9 points per contest. During the season to this point, the Horned Frogs have thrown for 2,971 passing yards as well as holding an average of 297.1 passing yards per outing, which ranks 13th in Division 1.

TCU has allowed a total of 1,501 rushing yards (150.1 yards per contest) as well as 15 touchdowns rushing for the season. They have allowed the opposition 12 touchdowns through the air and 244.5 yards/outing, which puts them in 103rd in college football. They have totaled 3 fumbles recovered and 7 picks for the season. The Horned Frogs defense has been on the field for 717 plays, which ranks 110th in D-1. The Horned Frogs are giving up 24.8 PPG, which has them ranked 58th in the country. This season, they have surrendered 248 pts.

Who will win tonight's Bears/Horned Frogs college football game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Bears +4

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