Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, 9/30/2023 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

Date: Saturday, September 30, 2023

Location: Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Bulldogs (+11)

Total/Over-Under: 49

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-2) will play the Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1) at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday, September 30, 2023. Mississippi State opens this matchup as 11-point underdogs. The total is 49.

The Alabama Crimson Tide head into this matchup 3-1 for this season. In their last contest, the Crimson Tide faced the Ole Miss Rebels and took home the win by a score of 24-10. Jalen Milroe finished 17/21 with 225 yds through the air and 1 touchdown. He had a QB rating of 177.1 and finished the contest with 1 pick. Jase McClellan was the leader on the ground for the Crimson Tide with 17 carries for 105 yards (6.2 yds per attempt). When the final whistle blew, they tallied 66 plays which gave them 356 yards. The Alabama Crimson Tide ended up running the ball 45 times and had 131 yards, which earned them an average of 2.9 yds per carry. Against the rush, the Crimson Tide gave up 56 yards on 29 attempts, which is an average of 1.9 yds per run surrendered. Alabama conceded 21 pass completions on 36 tries for a total of 245 yards, and a completion rate of 58.3%.

The Crimson Tide have tallied 1,459 total yards over the course of this year. In terms of scoring touchdowns, Alabama has amassed 6 passing touchdowns and 8 touchdowns via the ground. They have turned the football over 4 times. Alabama has compiled 78 1st downs as a unit, and they have committed 23 infractions for 204 yds. As a team they hold an average of 161.5 yards in the run game ranking them 63rd in the country. When it comes to putting the ball in the endzone, the Alabama Crimson Tide hold an average of 30.3 points per outing.

When talking about passing yards, the Crimson Tide are giving up 814 yards which puts them in 49th in college football. They have allowed 203.5 yards per outing via the pass and allowed a completion percentage of 60.6%. Over the course of this season, they are surrendering 306.0 yards per contest putting them at 31st in the nation. They have surrendered 4 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 2 touchdowns via the ground game. Opposing teams are running for an average of 3.0 yards per rush on the ground and 102.5 rushing yards per game on the season. For the season, they have allowed 410 rushing yards through 4 contests. The Crimson Tide are ranked 18th in Division 1 when it comes to team defense, giving up 13.5 PPG.

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The Bulldogs come into this game with a record of 2-2 for this season. In their last game, the Bulldogs went home defeated by a final of 37-30 when they faced the South Carolina Gamecocks. Will Rogers (1 touchdown) ended the game with 487 yards on 30/48 passing while his quarterback rating was 150.4. He had 1 pick and his Y/A was 10.1. Jo'quavious Marks carried the rock 12 times for 27 yds, finishing the game with 2.3 yds per carry for Mississippi State. Mississippi State rushed the ball for 1.4 yds per carry, totaling 32 yards on 23 carries. The Bulldogs finished with 519 yards while they ran 71 plays (7.3 yards per play). The Bulldogs pass defense gave up a completion percentage of 90.0%, surrendering 288 yards on 18 out of 20 passing. Mississippi State conceded 47 running attempts for 144 yards (3.1 yards per carry).

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are averaging 388.0 yards/outing, which has them sitting 74th in the nation. The Mississippi State offense has totaled 194 penalty yards on 19 infractions, which has them ranked 105th in the nation in terms of hurting your team. They have an average of 142.3 yards via the ground game and have toted the ball for 569 yards for this season. They have thrown 1 interception while losing 2 fumbles and they have been able to tally 69 1st downs. When it comes to the points being put on the board, the Bulldogs rank 59th in college football holding an average of 30.8 PPG. Over the course of the season so far, the Bulldogs have compiled 983 yards through the air as well as holding an average of 245.8 passing yards per game, putting them at 58th in D-1.

Mississippi State has surrendered a total of 481 yards on the ground (120.3 yards per game) and 6 touchdowns via the rush on the campaign. They have surrendered 8 touchdowns through the air as well as 280.0 yards per game, ranking them 122nd in Division 1. They have compiled 3 fumbles and 4 interceptions on the season. The Bulldogs defense has been on the field for 269 plays, which has them sitting 83rd in D-1. The Bulldogs are allowing 27.3 PPG, which has them sitting 91st in the nation. In total, they have conceded 109 pts.

Who will win tonight's Crimson Tide/Bulldogs college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Bulldogs +11

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