SMU Mustangs vs UCF Knights Prediction, 10/1/2022 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: SMU Mustangs vs UCF Knights

Date: Saturday, October 1, 2022

Location: Bounce House in Orlando, FL

TV: ESPNU

Odds/Point Spread: Knights (-4)

Total/Over-Under: 64

Bounce House is the site where the UCF Knights (3-1) will try to beat the SMU Mustangs (2-2) on Saturday. SMU opens as 4-point dogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under comes in at 64.

The SMU Mustangs come into this matchup with a record of 2-2 for this year. The last time they took the field, the Mustangs faced the TCU Horned Frogs and went home with a loss by a final score of 42-34. Tanner Mordecai finished 27/49 with 372 yards through the air and 2 touchdowns. He had a QB rating of 124.2 and ended the contest with 2 interceptions. Tre Siggers led the offense in rushing for the Mustangs with 19 carries for 60 yds (3.2 yds per carry). In the game, they tallied 86 plays which converted into 476 yds. The SMU Mustangs ended up rushing 37 different times and tallied 104 yards, which had them averaging 2.8 yds per attempt. When it came to the battle of the line of scrimmage, the Mustangs conceded 191 yards on 35 tries, which calculates to 5.5 yds per rush surrendered. SMU gave up 23 completions on 30 tries for 296 yards, and a completion rate of 76.7%.

The Mustangs have earned 2,025 total yards for the year. In terms of getting the ball in the endzone, SMU has compiled 12 touchdowns through the air and 8 rushing touchdowns. They have turned the football over 10 different times. SMU has amassed 103 1st downs offensively, and they have been called for 18 penalties for 164 yds. As a team they are averaging 153.3 yards in the run game which has them sitting 76th in the country. Regarding putting the ball in the endzone, the SMU Mustangs are averaging 38.5 points per game.

When it comes to passing yards, the Mustangs have conceded 878 yards which puts them in 65th in the country. They have yielded 219.5 yards per contest via the pass in addition to allowing a completion percentage of 57.7%. Over the course of this season, they are granting 400.0 yards/outing which has them sitting 88th in D-1. They have given up 5 touchdowns via the pass and 7 touchdowns running the ball. They are allowing 4.4 yards per tote and 180.5 rushing yards per contest this season. Overall, they have conceded 722 rushing yards through 4 contests. The Mustangs are sitting in 73rd in the nation when it comes to their opponents scoring, conceding 25.5 points per contest.

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The Knights come into this game with a record of 3-1 this season. The last time they took the field, the Knights got the win with a final of 27-10 when they faced the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. John Rhys Plumlee walked away from the contest with 49 yards on 8/16 through the air while his quarterback rating was 63.2. He had 1 pick and his average yards per attempt was 3.1. John Rhys Plumlee carried the football 16 times for 100 yds, ending the game with 6.3 yards per attempt for UCF. The Knights finished with 333 yards while running 73 plays (4.6 yards per play). UCF ran the football for 5.1 yards per attempt, finishing with a total of 284 yards on 56 carries. UCF gave up 31 running attempts for 124 yards (4.0 yds per rush). The Knights pass defense conceded a completion rate of 65.6%, surrendering 314 yards on 21 out of 32 passing.

The UCF Knights are averaging 482.5 yards per outing, which has them ranked 24th in the country. The UCF offense has 256 yards of penalties on 27 violations, ranking them 46th in Division 1 in terms of hurting your team. During this campaign thus far, the Knights have thrown for a total of 827 passing yards in addition to an average of 206.8 passing yards per contest, putting them at 98th in Division 1. When it comes to how much they score, the Knights currently rank 51st in the country with 34.3 PPG.

UCF has allowed a total of 573 yards rushing (143.3 yards per game) as well as 3 touchdowns on the ground on the year. They have conceded 3 touchdowns through the air and 168.3 yards per game, which has them in 18th in the country. The Knights defense has taken part in 252 plays, which is good for 40th in Division 1. The Knights are conceding 13.5 points per contest, ranking them 12th in the nation. Over the course of the season, they have relinquished 54 pts.

Who will win tonight's Mustangs/Knights college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Mustangs +4

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