Austin Peay Governors vs Central Arkansas Bears Prediction, 8/28/2020 NCAA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Austin Peay Governors vs Central Arkansas Bears

Date: Saturday, August 29, 2020

Location: Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, AL

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Austin Peay +5

Total/Over-Under: 43

Cramton Bowl is the venue where the Austin Peay Governors will take on the Central Arkansas Bears on Saturday, August 29, 2020. The Bears are ranked 11th in the Preseason FCS Top 25 while the Governors are ranked 13th. Both teams know each other well, with UCA winning 24-16 last season.

Central Arkansas has 18 starters returning from last years team, so there may not be as much rust as one would think heading into this matchup. Austin Peay returns 14 starters, so they too shouldn't have time adjusting after the uneven offseason.

JaVaughn Craig led the Governors through the air last season when he completed 234 passes out of 406 attempts for 3,208 yards. He completed 57% of his passes and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt. Craig finished with 28 touchdowns, 13 picks, and he was sacked 14 times for -76 yards. He finished the season with a 140.4 QB rating. On the ground they were led by Kentel Williams, who finished with 895 yards on 175 carries (5.1 average). He scored 11 touchdowns including a long of 67 yards. DeAngelo Wilson caught 89 passes for 1,565 yards to lead Austin Peay last season, which was an average of 17.6 yards per catch. He was able to put it in the end zone 15 times.

In terms of team stats, the Governors average 34.5 points per game last year and totaled 69 touchdowns. They had 302 total first downs, with about half of them being through the air. They accumulated 2,968 yards on the ground as a unit on 596 attempts, which is an average of 4.5 yards per rush. The Governors averaged 179 yards per game rushing and were able to score 34 touchdowns. Through the air, Austin Peay finished with 3,594 yards and 32 scores. They averaged 239 yards per contest. On defense they held opponents to 20.6 points per game. Their rushing defense surrendered 1,977 yards on 509 tries for a 3.1 average. The Governors passing defense gave up 3,052 yards through the air (203 per game) and 37 touchdowns. One factor that cost them some games is penalties. Austin Peay averaged 87 yards per game in penalties while their opponents only averaged 49.5. This is something to keep an eye on in this contest because it can be a real drive killer when you're constantly trying to make up yards from penalties.

Breylin Smith led Central Arkansas last year at QB with 3,704 yards passing. He completed 316 of 490 throws for a 64.5% completion percentage. He finished the campaign with 32 touchdowns and 16 picks. He was also sacked 34 times for -182 yards. Carlos Blackman led the Bears on the ground last year with 698 yards on 167 carries (4.2 average). He scored 8 touchdowns and had a long run of 42 yards. Tyler Hudson was the leading receiver for UCA, totaling 975 yards on 55 receptions. He scored 12 touchdowns and had a long catch of 78 yards. His average per catch was 17.7 yards.

Central Arkansas scored 27.7 points per contest last year while giving up 26.6. That small of a gap is a reason that some are doubting this team. They also had less first downs than their opponents (272 to 251), so some of the doubters point to those stats as reasons for concern. Their rushing discrepancy was particularly alarming, as their opponents ran for 1,936 yards on the ground while Central Arkansas only ran for 1,154. It was the passing offense that carried the Bears last year, as they accumulated 3,807 yards through the air while surrendering only 3,365. In terms of total offense, Central Arkansas finished with 4,961 while their opponents had 5,301 yards from scrimmage.

Who will win tonight's Governors/Bears college football game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Governors +5

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