Virginia Cavaliers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Expert Picks and Betting Odds

Virginia Cavaliers at. Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Saturday September 28, 3:30 p.m. ET

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off one of the most exciting games of the year last week - one of the rare contests that lives up to the massive hype. But you don't get points for solid efforts in this game, and the Irish came up short against Georgia. That means that the Irish have to regroup and get back on task in this one. And this is no easy spot to do that. Bronco Mendenhall is doing a very good job with Virginia. They are unbeaten, ranked in the Top 20, and in the driver's seat early for a date with Clemson in the ACC title game. This isn't a conference game, so it ultimately doesn't mean that much for Virginia in the scheme of things. But it is an excellent measuring stick game for them and good chance for Notre Dame to show us that it is too soon to write them out of the national picture just yet.

Virginia at Notre Dame Betting Storylines

Related: Best Parlay Picks for Virginia vs. Notre Dame

For Virginia to pull off the upset here, they are going to have to rely on their defense. It has been good this year - especially the run. Last time out, Old Dominion ran 44 times and gained just 64 yards. That's just fewer than 1.5 yards per attempt. Of course, Notre Dame is a lot more dangerous and athletic than Old Dominion is, and they aren't going to stick so doggedly to the run game if it isn't working for them early on. One thing that stands out in particular is third down defense. Virginia has done a very good job defending on third down, allowing conversions just 32.2 percent of the time. And Notre Dame has been really ugly when they have had third down opportunities, cashing in on them a pitiful 28.6 percent of the time. If the Cavaliers can force Notre Dame into as many of these situations as they can, then they could do some damage on that front.

The big problem for Virginia, though, is that all of the pressure is going to be on the defense, because their offense is a disaster right now. Against what should have been a badly outmatched Old Dominion team, they managed just 244 yards of total offense. QB Bryce Perkins has had better games than that, but he has thrown four interceptions and just six touchdowns, so he hasn't been as efficient as he could be. Georgia had some issues scoring against Notre Dame last week, so it feels likely that Virginia really will as well.

Notre Dame has advantages in most spots on the field. It is a bit of a cliché, but the biggest challenge they face in this one could be themselves. They made the playoff last year and were surely hoping to repeat that feat this year. While the loss to Georgia doesn't completely cancel those dreams, it does challenge them significantly. And while Virginia is a solid and respectable team, they are clearly a step down from the Bulldogs in terms of importance and prestige. If the Irish dial in and play like they can, then this one probably won't be that close. But if they haven't been able to shake off the disappointment of last week's missed opportunity and fully focus on this one, then Virginia is just the type of team that could cause some real issues.

Virginia at Notre Dame Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with Notre Dame favored by 11, and it has climbed as high as 12.5 in early betting action. Action is almost evenly split between the two teams, so it isn't likely to see the line hit a key number without a significant development. The total opened at 50 and has climbed just slightly to 50.5.

The Cavaliers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in September, and an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with winning records. The Irish are just as impressive against winning teams, going 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.

Virginia at Notre Dame Predictions and Picks

I like an underdog story as much as anyone. More than most, even. But I'm not seeing it in this spot. Notre Dame is just more talented, and their balanced offense is going to challenge Virginia more than other teams have to this point. And while a letdown is a real possibility, it is noteworthy that the Irish were talking about Virginia in their post-game press conferences after the Georgia loss, so at least on some level they moved on right away. If anything, Notre Dame could look to take out their frustrations on their visitors. Notre Dame is the play.

Doc's Sports is offering a great deal for new clients - you can get $60 worth of free college football picks with no obligation. No credit card is needed, and you will never have to deal with a salesman. Get $60 worth of premium members' picks free . Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details . Get free weekly free college football picks at Doc's Sports free football picks page.

Read more articles by Trevor Whenham