USC Trojans vs. Washington Huskies Expert Picks with Betting Odds

USC Trojans vs. Washington Huskies, Saturday September 28, 3:30 p.m. ET

This is a really interesting and very important game in the Pac-12. Much more so than it seemed like it would be heading into the season. Washington has already lost a conference game to a Cal team that is playing shockingly good defense, so they can't afford another loss if they want to be in contention for a berth in the conference title game. And USC is rolling along better than most expected and is in very good shape in their division thanks to a big win over Utah. Neither team can really afford a loss here, and both have some hurdles to overcome to get that win. That's what makes a game great. The potential for this one is excellent.

USC at Washington Betting Storylines

USC's QB position is like the drummers in "Spinal Tap". Seemingly every game they lose another guy. J.T. Daniels went down. Then Kedon Slovis went down. And now Matt Fink is the next guy up. Fink has looked very good in his play so far, but this is a tough challenge for him as Washington has tape on him from last week, so he won't sneak up on anyone. And though Fink has been around the program for a long time, he wasn't a blue chip guy and isn't exactly the guy you want to have at the helm in a marquee game like this. And the USC running game has just been a mess so far - especially last week against Utah - so Fink is going to face a lot of pressure in this game. The good news is that the USC line, though incompetent at run blocking, has protected QBs reasonably well despite the injuries. Fink should have time to pass. But Washington will know that he is going to be passing a lot. And that could be an issue. Washington has given up only three passing touchdowns in their four games to date, so the secondary is well suited to the challenge of this test.

This matchup presents an example of the challenge of taking meaning from past results. Two games back, USC lost to BYU 30-27 in overtime. It was a battle. The next week BYU played Washington. And it went very poorly for the Cougars. Washington QB Jacob Eason completed 24 of 28 passes, Washington ran at will, and it was a 45-19 massacre. Both games were played in Provo, so location made no difference. So, is Washington that much better than USC? Or was BYU just having a bad day - or a particularly good one? Maybe the issue is that USC isn't great on the road - which isn't good news here. It would be easy to attach too much significance to those past results. But we also can't ignore them.

More: Guy Picks the ATS Winner for USC vs. Washington

Jacob Eason arrived in Seattle with massive expectations on him, and he has lived up to them so far. He has passed for 1,063 yards while completing 73 percent of his passes and averaging 8.9 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns and only two picks. There is nothing to complain about in those numbers. This USC defense has not been stellar and has shown vulnerability against the pass. Eason is primed to have a big day. Actually, it is tough to imagine him not having at least a solid day - and perhaps much more. And that's a problem for the Trojans. There could be some rain on Saturday, and that could have an impact on Eason's game. But it would hinder USC's one-dimensional attack more.

USC at Washington Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with Washington favored by 9.5 points and has climbed slightly to 10 in early betting action. Nearly 60 percent of all bets have been placed on the Huskies, so we could see the line climb slightly higher. The total opened at 59 and has been stable so far .

The Trojans are an ugly 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games in September. They are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 road games. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings against Washington. The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall but just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 conference games.

USC at Washington Predictions and Picks

I have trouble explaining the USC win against Utah - I respect the Utes and expected more from them. But despite that, I think USC is a bit of an illusion. This is the biggest test they have faced, the defense is a problem, they are down to their third-string quarterback, and their coach is still incompetent. Washington has a big edge at QB, a bigger edge at coach, is more talented generally, and is at home. The Huskies are the choice.

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