2019 Texas Longhorns College Football Odds and Expert Betting Picks

2018 Record: 10-4

2019 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 9.5

2019 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Under'

Last year Texas won 10 games for the first time in nearly a decade, and now the assumption is that they are somehow "back" to being a national powerhouse. However, I think we should pump the brakes a bit on the Longhorns. I know there are a lot of people that want the Longhorns to be "back". But I don't think they are quite there yet.

Tom Herman was undeniably a great hire in Austin. And he delivered last season. He took a talented, experienced roster and molded it into a tough, physical team that could beat anyone on any given day. They beat Oklahoma during the regular season and thumped Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. And three of their four losses were by five points or less.

Texas lost as much as any team in the Big 12 this offseason, and they enter this season with just eight returning starters. They lost their top rusher, their top receiver, and seven of their top 10 tacklers.

Herman has been recruiting at a high level. However, his first recruiting class is now just sophomores. Just seven seniors are slated to start, and there should be a lot of snaps up for grabs for young players.

The Longhorns do have Sam Ehlinger back. He was outstanding last year after beating out Shane Buechele, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards and accounting for 41 touchdowns. Sophomore Keaontay Ingram and senior receivers Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay should ensure that Texas doesn't drop off much from their 31.1 points per game.

Texas had several close losses last season. But they also had a lot of close wins. Seven of their 10 victories came by a touchdown or less. They did beat two Top 5 opponents, but they also lost to Maryland and were far from dominant against weak sisters like Tulsa and Kansas.

The Longhorns do open with four games in their home state. But that doesn't mean they get to ease into the year. They host LSU in Week 2 in a game with national ramifications. They also have to host an Oklahoma State team that's beaten them four straight times.

The Red River Rivalry game is in Dallas on Oct. 12. And Texas has three tricky road games at TCU, at Iowa State and at Baylor.

The Longhorns wouldn't have beaten this Season Win Total last year, winning nine games in the regular season and getting that 10^th win in their bowl game. I don't think that Texas is better this year. They've simply lost too much talent and, in my opinion, they are overvalued coming into the season. This team isn't a national title contender, even if they are being treated like one. I'm playing the 'under'.

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