Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns Expert Picks and Betting Odds

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns, Saturday September 21, 7:30 p.m. ET

If you had looked at this game going into the season, you might have guessed that we would be dealing with an undefeated team. But many would have guessed that it would have been Texas. The Longhorns entered the season under tremendous amounts of hype and inflated expectations . And though they lost to LSU in Week Two, they didn't embarrass themselves. They still find themselves ranked and without a conference loss, so most of their dreams are still alive. But they can't afford another stumble - not here. So, they have to be playing with a whole lot of urgency in this one.

The Cowboys have made it through conference play unbeaten, and they have covered all three spreads. They played far from the toughest schedule out there, but a scheduling oddity that saw them play both at Oregon State and Tulsa made things a little tougher for them. You don't often see major conference teams play two road games against lesser opponents before conference play begins.

Oklahoma State at Texas Betting Storylines

The only game that really matters when it comes to evaluating Texas is that LSU one. And the one thing that stands out above all else when you look at it is how badly Joe Burrow tore apart the Texas secondary. Burrow is a nice enough QB, but not exactly the best passer in the country. But if you had never seen him play before this game, you would think that he was the second coming of Brett Favre. He threw for 471 yards while completing 31 of 39 passes and scoring four touchdowns. Three different receivers had at least 123 yards receiving. In other words, the Texas secondary basically was incapable of putting up any resistance. Texas ranks last in pass defense in the Big 12 right now. When you are last in that league, you are really doing poorly. And while the Cowboys are starting a freshman QB in Spencer Sanders, he is in a pass friendly system, and he has been strong so far, completing two-thirds of his passes for seven touchdowns and just one pick through three games. In Dillon Stoner and Tylon Wallace, the Cowboys have two really good receivers for Pencer to work with. And they have a rushing game led by Chuba Hubbard, who is the leading rusher in the nation with 521 yards already, that is averaging eight yards per carry, so they are well-balanced. This Oklahoma State offense is going to be able to put some points up.

More: Josh picks the Oklahoma State vs. Texas ATS Winner

Texas is also going to be able to score pretty much at will. Sam Ehlinger is playing very well at QB and would have had the day everyone was talking about in the LSU game if it weren't for Burrow - he went 31 of 47 for 401 yards and four scores. And LSU, needless to say, is more talented and more athletic than the Cowboys on defense. Oregon State threw for 281 yards and four touchdowns against Oklahoma State in the opener, and Tulsa moved the ball pretty well, too. Neither of those offenses has the weapon that Texas does - not even close. Texas has been very efficient on third-down plays so far, and they have done a good job of protecting the ball and winning the time of possession battle. So, basically, the key point here is that you should buckle up because this one isn't going to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Oklahoma State at Texas Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with Texas favored by a touchdown, but that has since fallen, and 5.5 is the widely available number currently . About 70 percent of bets have been on the Longhorns, so the movement suggests that sharp money has hit the Cowboys. The total opened at 71 and has moved to 73.

The Cowboys have covered their last four spreads and are 5-0 ATS in their last five against teams with winning records. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in September. The Longhorns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with winning road records. The Cowboys have gone "over" the total in 24 of their last 33 conference games, while the Longhorns have gone "under" in 38 of the last 53 of theirs.

Oklahoma State at Texas Predictions and Picks

The line movement concerns me a little, but I don't see how to avoid taking Texas in this one. Texas is more talented. They have the more experienced and talented quarterback. They are at home. It may not be pretty, but I like Texas' chance to come out on top by at least a touchdown. Texas is the play.

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