Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Expert Picks with Betting Odds

Ohio State Buckeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday September 28, 7:30 p.m. ET

We are only one game into the Big Ten season, and already it feels like an Ohio State vs. Wisconsin showdown in the Big Ten Championship Game is inevitable. Yet again. In the five years of the current division alignments in the conference, each of those teams has been in the title game three times - twice against each other. It would be nice to see some variety. But it's tougher and tougher to see where Ohio State is going to lose given how things have gone so far.

Let's be perfectly clear - the Buckeyes are the better team. And it's not even remotely close. But Scott Frost is a coaching magician, and at some point he is going to make a big statement at his alma mater. And there would be no statement bigger than pulling off a shocking win here. It's something to hope for - a little drama in a conference that badly needs some.

Ohio State at Nebraska Betting Storylines

More: Josh Picks the Ohio State vs. Nebraska ATS Winner

The Buckeyes are third nationally in points scored, with 53.5 per game. And they are third nationally in points allowed, too, averaging just nine. Now, they haven't exactly played a schedule of killers - Cincinnati was the closest to a real challenge, and they laid a massive egg. But Ohio State has absolutely destroyed everyone they have played. And they have done it in a ruthless, balanced way. Highly-touted transfer QB Justin Fields has been everything advertised so far, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt with 13 touchdowns and not a single interception. And it's not like he has been hogging the position, either - two other passers have 17 attempts and three TD passes between them. He has been a machine. And can Nebraska slow him down? Probably not. The Husker pass defense was solid enough against Illinois last week but has generally been a little porous. Colorado passed for 375 yards against the Huskers, and it's not like anyone would trade Justin Fields for Steven Montez. If Colorado can put up 34 points against this Nebraska team, then you can be sure that Ohio State will post far more than that. Against Miami of Ohio last time out, the Buckeyes looked sluggish early, but once they got rolling it became a bloodbath. This won't be quite like that - Nebraska is much better than Miami, so the Buckeyes won't score 76 again. But they will score.

So, we know Ohio State is going to be able to score. And that means that Nebraska will have to be able to score as well to keep up. And that's a bit of a problem. Ohio State has been crushing teams defensively. The defensive line is terrifying, and it has been all but impossible to run against. And Nebraska's offensive line has already lost their star left tackle and is battered and challenged. Taylor Martinez is a very good quarterback, and he is well coached, but he is likely to be too focused on survival here to put up big numbers in this one. A team like Nebraska at a skill deficit needs a balanced, unpredictable attack to have a chance to offset their disadvantage. That just isn't going to happen here.

Ohio State at Nebraska Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with Ohio State favored by two touchdowns and has climbed by more than a field goal to 17 in early action . More than three-quarters of all bets have been on the Buckeyes, so the line movement is as expected and the number could continue to climb. The total opened at 67.5 and has fallen only slightly to 67.

The Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have covered their last six against teams with winning records and four of the last five conference games. They are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 road games against teams with winning home records. Nebraska is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in September.

Ohio State at Nebraska Predictions and Picks

I am a sucker for an upset - especially when it is Ohio State that gets upset. And the fans at Memorial Stadium are going to be just out of their minds in this one, which helps the very well-coached Cornhuskers. But this is as good an Ohio State team as we have seen in a while - at least so far. And their advantages line up well against concerns from Nebraska. My heart tells me to hold out hope for a great story and a shocking result. But my head tells me that Ohio State is the clear pick at this price. Screw off heart - I'm going with my head this time. Ohio State is the pick.

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