NCAA Football Betting Odds: Week 5 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
Last week's game between No. 10 Notre Dame and No. 3 Georgia was arguably the most important game of the college football season. When it was all said and done, the better team won. And while it won't win any awards for "best game" of the year, the Bulldogs used it as a platform to move one step closer to the CFP. Notre Dame, on the other hand, simply can't afford another loss if it wants to make a run at a second consecutive berth in the postseason.
There are no such games of the magnitude this week, but we do have some great games on tap for the college football fanatic. For starters, the aforementioned Fighting Irish get a home date with an undefeated Virginia squad , who is starting to turn heads. The Irish are listed as 12.5-point favorites , with the total set at 48.5. Elsewhere, in a game I touch on below, the Washington State Cougars travel to Salt Lake City to take on the No. 19 Utah Utes. And Ohio State travels to Nebraska to take on a good Huskers squad. The Buckeyes are listed as 17.5-point favorites, with the total set at 67.5.
Here are notes for some of Saturday's games around the country, in no particular order.
Mississippi Rebels @ No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-38, 61): I truly believe that no bet on Alabama is a bad bet; unless you had a chance to grab a lower number and just flat out missed it. Look, this number opened up at -32.5, which is a hell of a lot of points to lay in a football game. It's since been bet up to 38, which is almost 40 points. That's insane. We know that Ole Miss will likely be without their starting QB in Matt Corral, but 40 points is still a lot of points to lay. Could we see Alabama winning this game 56-0? Absolutely. But we could also see a scenario where the backdoor remains open after Nick Saban throws in the backups to play the fourth quarter. The total has also been bet up from the opening line of 57.5 to 61, and we believe Alabama is going to need to put up at least 50 for the over to hit.
Northwestern Wildcats @ No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers (-24.5, 46.5): The Badgers put any talk of "frauds" to rest after dismantling the Michigan Wolverines last week on their home turn. Now they get to continue the momentum against a Northwestern team that is struggling to put up points on offense. This number opened at -21 and was quickly bet up to 24.5, and with good reason. The Badgers defense is nasty, and what we've seen from the Wildcats give us no indication that they are going to be able to move the ball or score points in this game. The total has been bet up from 45 to 46.5, which is relatively low for a college game. We do see the reasoning behind the low total, but we feel as though Wisconsin can score 40 with ease against Northwestern, which is why we are inclined to take the over.
Washington State Cougars @ No. 19 Utah Utes (-6, 57): Both Washington and Utah come into this game on the heels of heartbreaking losses. For the Cougars, they were on the wrong end of a massive comeback that saw them blow an 18-point lead at half time en route to a 67-63 loss to a previously-winless UCLA team. For the Utes, it was much of the same from them in Southern California as they were unable to beat a backup quarterback and failed to win at USC for the millionth straight year. To add insult to injury, the Utes have to move on without their No. 1 running back in Zack Moss, who is out with a separated shoulder. His absence is a big deal, and we can see why this number has been bet down from the opening line of -8, all the way down to -6. The Utes are definitely the better team in this game, but the Cougars should be pissed off about last week. And if they can continue to put points on the board at the rate they are doing so, they could pull off the upset here against a reeling Utah squad.
No. 24 Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (-4, 59.5): And lastly, the Big 12 matchup between the Wildcats and Cowboys should be an entertaining affair, and bettors are starting to side with the ranked underdog in this one as they've brought the spread down from OK State -7.5 to OK State -4, with the total dropping from 64 to 59.5. Look, I'm not going to sit here and say the Cowboys were exposed last week by Texas. They didn't play their best game, and the play calling was awful. I can understand the spread dropping to where it is, and I'd be shocked if it didn't drop further and land around -2.5. Kansas State is a good team, and they are coming off a bye week, which gives them an extra week of preparation for the Pokes. We know how well K-State has fared as an underdog in the past under Bill Snyder, so there's no reason to believe they won't be an active dog in this one. I'll be grabbing as many points as I can.
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