Michigan State Spartans at Ohio State Buckeyes Expert Picks and Betting Odds

Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday October 5, 7:30 p.m. ET

There are just three games this week between ranked teams, and two of them are Big Ten contests featuring teams from Michigan. In all likelihood, this one is much more of a mismatch than the Iowa and Michigan tilt . Or at least it will be much more of a surprise if it isn't. Michigan State has had their moments this year, but they are a long way from perfect, and there are some clear areas of concern. Meanwhile, there isn't a team in the country that is playing any better than Ohio State. They have been ripping teams apart, and they probably deserve to be ranked higher than the fifth that they currently sit at. It's hard to believe that there are four teams better than them at the moment. Can Michigan State do enough to challenge that perception?

Michigan State at Ohio State Betting Storylines

The Buckeyes scored 28 points in the first quarter of their opener against Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic, and they haven't looked back. They have allowed just 8.6 points per game, which ranks third nationally. And even that is inflated somewhat because FAU scored 15 of the 43 points the Buckeyes have allowed in the fourth quarter after Ohio State had emptied their bench. And they have been crushing the souls of opponents, shutting out a Cincinnati team that looked great in their opener, and destroying Nebraska. But the Buckeyes haven't just been winning on defense. Their offense ranks third nationally in points scored. They have scored at least 42 points in every game, and that has been despite letting up on the gas late when things are in control. I am as happy as anyone to pick holes in Ohio State, but there just haven't been any so far. The risk when a team is rolling like this one is that they can believe their own headlines and take a game for granted. While that is always a risk, this is the best opponent they have faced, and it's a rivalry game against a key divisional foe. Losing this game would be a massive blow for the Buckeyes, and it's not like they are going to be looking beyond this one - they have a bye week and then play at a weak Northwestern team in the next two weeks. We should see the full Buckeye effect in this one, and that's probably not great for the Spartans.

While the Ohio State offense has seemed totally unstoppable under transfer QB Justin Fields so far, this is by far the best defense they have faced. The Spartans rank seventh nationally in total yards allowed, and they have been incredibly stingy against the run, allowing just 56.4 yards per game. But even that isn't as good as it could be in the end. In their last game, Indiana couldn't run the ball at all, but they did pass for 286 and three touchdowns, and they scored 31 points. That's the same Indiana offense that scored only 10 points against Ohio State, with the only touchdown coming on a bizarre trick play that never should have worked in which a wide receiver threw a 49-yard touchdown. It sure feels that the Michigan State defense might not be quite as solid as the numbers would suggest. And while they are good against the run, Ohio State has been very effective running, and they aren't going to get completely shut down.

More: Josh Picks the Michigan State vs. Ohio State ATS Winner

Michigan State at Ohio State Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with Ohio State favored by 20 points, and while it has bounced around slightly, you can still find it at 20 . More than 60 percent of bets have been on Ohio State, so it is a good bet that the key number of 21 will be in play sooner or later. The total opened at 49 and has moved slightly to 50 in early betting action.

The Spartans are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five against teams with winning records. The Buckeyes have covered the spread in their last four overall and in their last seven against teams with winning records. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams, and the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Michigan State at Ohio State Predictions and Picks

I came into the writing of this preview hoping I could find a way to back the Spartans. It's a big price for a conference game between ranked teams. But I just can't do it. I don't trust the Spartans defense enough to believe that Ohio State is not going to be able to score here. And I don't trust the Michigan State offense nearly enough to believe that they are going to be able to score enough to keep it close. This one might stay close for a while, but the Buckeyes should be able to run away with it at the end. Giving up this many points isn't something I love doing, but the Buckeyes are the play.

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