2019 Kentucky Wildcats College Football Odds and Expert Betting Picks

2018 Record: 10-3

2019 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 6.5*

2019 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Under'

Last year the stars aligned for Mark Stoops and this program. Armed with his best roster and an extremely favorable schedule, the Wildcats put together one of the best seasons in school history, winning 10 games and capping the season with a thrilling bowl win over Penn State. Kentucky finished the season in the Top 25 for the first time since 1984.

This season the Wildcats may have to pay the piper. They drop from 15 to 10 returning starters, from seven three-year starters to just two, and from 10 senior starters to just six. The Wildcats also lose their heart-and-soul players on both sides of the ball, running back Benny Snell (the school's all-time leading rusher) and linebacker Josh Allen, a first-round NFL Draft pick.

Five of the team's top seven tacklers are gone. Four of the top five receivers are gone. Three starting offensive linemen are gone.

Needless to say, this looks like a bit of a rebuild for Stoops and Kentucky.

Junior quarterback Terry Wilson will try to continue his development after a decent sophomore year. Wilson, who redshirted at Oregon before spending a season in junior college, is a bit more experienced than his 13 career starts suggest. But he is not an elite SEC signal caller by any stretch.

Kentucky has posted three straight winning seasons, going 24-15 straight up over the past three years. However, they are 0-9 against the spread as a home favorite the last two seasons and just 10-16 ATS the past two years overall. This despite really coming out of nowhere and exceeding the program's low expectations. The Wildcats are just 20-31 ATS in four years under Stoops.

What those numbers tell me is that Kentucky really hasn't been as good as their record suggests the past several seasons. And if you look into it, it is clear that they are the beneficiaries of some cushy scheduling (and a down SEC East) over the past few years. I think it will come back to bite them this season. Especially now that people aren't overlooking the Wildcats.

Toledo, Eastern Michigan and UT-Martin are cupcakes. Kentucky also has an easy home game against Arkansas, which should be a fourth win. The Wildcats also host Missouri, Tennessee and Louisville, three teams that aren't exactly powerhouses.

Kentucky has only four road games all season long, one of which is at Vanderbilt.

There are a lot of potential W's on this schedule, and the Wildcats once again have one of the easier slates in the SEC. But I don't think that they are that talented, and they are really going to miss the guys that graduated last year. I see Kentucky getting back to a bowl game, but I don't think that this team will get to seven wins for the fourth straight season.

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