Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines Expert Picks with Betting Odds

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines, Saturday October 5, 10 p.m. ET

This is a different game than we thought we were getting heading into the season, but it's an interesting one. Iowa is significantly better than most people expected. Fueled by a potent defense, they are unbeaten and looking to establish themselves as a viable Big Ten contender. Michigan, meanwhile, is nowhere near where they were supposed to be. They are coming off a strong performance, but their first two wins were ugly, and their loss was much, much uglier. They have gone from the conference favorite before the season to a team desperately trying to hold on at this point. This is just one of three games this week between two ranked teams, and it is absolutely a must-win game for both teams if they want to keep their 'A' goals for the season alive.

Iowa at Michigan Betting Storylines

More: Josh Picks the Iowa vs. Michigan ATS Winner for Saturday

What does a dominant win over Rutgers really mean? Sure. Michigan scored pretty much at will last Saturday, and they pitched a shutout on defense. They fixed a lot of what had ailed them entirely up to that point. But Rutgers is a truly awful team, and their performance in Ann Arbor was so bad that both head coach Chris Ash and his offensive coordinator were fired soon after the game. Michigan needs to be dramatically better than they were in their openers against Middle Tennessee and Army, and they can't repeat anything they did against Wisconsin. But the team faces significantly stiffer competition in practices than they did last week. So, how much of the change in demeanor, the crisper execution, and the improved attention to detail that we saw last week actually means anything? That's the million-dollar question here. Michigan appeared like a program that was broken - clueless - against Wisconsin. Can that really be fixed in an instant? Or was that just an illusion? Bettors will have to take a stance on that question, and it will entirely guide their decision here.

The Iowa defense has been very good so far, allowing just 34 points in their first four games. And they have been particularly stout against the run, allowing just 78.5 yards per game which is Top 10 in the nation. Michigan has struggled to establish the run this year, so it is a very good bet that the Wolverines aren't going to do much on the ground. That means that any success they do have will have to come from the arm of Shea Patterson. He's had only one good game this year - like the rest of his team. But despite Iowa's general defensive success, this is a pretty good spot for him. Patterson has a deep and talented roster of receivers to throw to. And the one thing that Iowa has been strangely awful at is creating pressure - they are last in the country in tackles for a loss. If you give Patterson and those receivers as much time as he is likely to have, he should be able to make things happen. The best team that Iowa has faced is, by a wide margin, Iowa State. The Hawkeyes won narrowly, but Iowa State's Brock Purdy and company were successful through the air. The team amassed 327 yards passing while completing 25 of 35 passes. And while it hasn't always been obvious, Patterson is a better QB than Purdy, and Michigan's receivers are far better than Iowa State's.

Iowa has an edge of their own on offense, though. After being so stingy against the run last year, Michigan's defense has been weak against the ground game. Wisconsin ran for 359 yards and averaged a gaudy 6.3 yards per carry. Michigan could do nothing at all to slow them down. Iowa's offensive strength has been the run, and they are averaging well over 200 yards per game. If they can establish the run early, it could be a problem for Michigan.

Iowa at Michigan Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with Michigan favored by 5.5 points at home, and that has fallen to 3.5 in early betting action. It has even flirted with the key number of three at times already. Almost two-thirds of bets have been placed on Iowa, so the line movement is consistent with expectations, and we could see it fall further. The total opened at 48 and has been relatively stable in early action.

The Hawkeyes are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games in October but just 2-6 ATS in their last five road games against teams with winning home records. The Wolverines are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall and 1-4 ATS in both their last five home games and last five conference games. Iowa has won five of the last six meetings between the teams, and the underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

Iowa at Michigan Predictions and Picks

You know that scene in "The Simpsons' when Homer touches an electric fence, get zapped, and then touches it again and again. He never learns. I'm well aware at this point that I'm Homer and Michigan is that electric fence. I know better than to keep having faith in them, and they burn me every time I do, but like a dumb yellow idiot I just keep running back for more. And though that Wisconsin game was almost the end of it for me, here I am back picking them again. Michigan is at home, they should be motivated in a way we haven't seen yet, and they should be able to establish the passing game. It's not going to be an easy game, and I would definitely wait as late as I can to see what the line is going to do, but Michigan feels like the play here.

Doc's Sports is offering a great deal for new clients - you can get $60 worth of free college football picks with no obligation. No credit card is needed, and you will never have to deal with a salesman. Get $60 worth of premium members' picks free . Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details . Get free weekly free college football picks at Doc's Sports free football picks page.

Read more articles by Trevor Whenham