Georgia State Panthers Picks: Week 6 of Full-Season Single-Team Specialization

The Georgia State Panthers stunned Tennessee in the opening week of the 2019 college football season and followed it up with a defeat of fellow respected mid-major program Furman. No one could have seen that start coming, either. Georgia State went to bowl games in 2015 and 2017-even winning one in its most recent appearance-but took a sizeable step back in the form of a 2-10 record last year. The Panthers managed to beat only Kennesaw State and Louisiana-Monroe while suffering eight of their 10 losses by double-digits.

Following a proverbial "sophomore slump" in Year 2 under head coach Shawn Elliot, season No. 3 of the current era began in style. After all, it does not get much better for Georgia State than kicking the Volunteers and Purple Paladins to the curb. And it hasn't gotten better. The Panthers are suddenly coming off consecutive losses to Western Michigan and Texas State, leaving them with a .500 record at 2-2. How will the roller-coaster ride progress? We are about to find out as I continue to track the Panthers' 2019 campaign, continuing with a home game against the Arkansas State Red Wolves on Saturday. There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and document the results.

Last Game

The Panthers' downward trend began with a 57-10 blowout loss at Western, and their two-game road trip did not to improve much one week later. A couple of missed field goals in extra time plagued Georgia State in its 37-34 triple-overtime loss at Texas State. The visitors took the lead on three separate occasions throughout the thriller, pulling ahead 7-3 in the first quarter, 14-10 in the second, and 24-20 in the fourth. They tied it up at 27-27 on the final play of regulation, a 20-yard field goal by Brandon Wright. After trading touchdowns with the Bobcats in the first OT, Wright missed from long range on a potential game-winning attempt in the second OT and erred while facing a must-make situation in the third OT. GSU outgained Texas State 423-350 but committed three turnovers while forcing none.

Betting Trends

• Georgia State is 4-14-3 ATS in its last 21 overall
• Georgia State is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four home games
• Georgia State is 1-10-2 ATS in its last 13 games against the Sun Belt Conference
• Georgia State is 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with winning records
• Arkansas State is 43-19-1 ATS in its last 63 games against the Sun Belt Conference
• Arkansas State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 October games
• Arkansas State is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games after scoring more than 40 points in the previous game

Georgia State at Texas State College Football Odds

The line has been fluctuating ever so slightly but has never wavered outside a range of 1.5 points. Georgia State opened as a +7.5 underdog at most sportsbooks before briefly getting as many as 8.5 points. It has since come back down, with the Panthers getting exactly a touchdown at home against Arkansas State. The total has been all over the place. It opened as low as 67 points some cases, ballooned as high as 73.5, and has now settled at 69.

Georgia State at Texas State College Football Picks

Arkansas State has bounced back from a two-game losing streak with consecutive wins over Southern Illinois and Troy. Starting quarterback Logan Bonner suffered a season-ending thumb injury against the Salukis, leaving Layne Hatcher to take the reins. Hatcher delivered immediately, completing 25 of 40 attempts for 440 yards and four touchdowns against the Trojans. He was picked off twice, but the Red Wolves still prevailed 50-43. Hatcher has proven himself, and it helps that he has plenty of weapons at his disposal in the form of Omar Bayless, Jonathan Adams, and Kirk Merritt. All three receivers went for more than 100 yards at Troy's expense (Bayless had 213 on 10 catches), and they combined for four touchdowns.

As for Georgia State, QB Dan Ellington has started to make some mistakes-in part because he has been under more pressure than he was during his team's two victories (six sacks in the last two, two sacks in the first two). Ellington had seven touchdowns and no interceptions in the two wins, but he has since compiled four TDs and two INTs. The Panthers scored 10 total points against Western Michigan and managed just one touchdown in three overtime periods against Texas State.

These are two teams going in different directions at the moment. It is true that Arkansas State is down to its backup quarterback, but early returns were extremely encouraging for Hatcher last weekend. The Panthers may have several problems on Saturday because their run defense is not good (Western Michigan racked up 450 such yards against them), and the Red Wolves are certainly dangerous through the air. Which attack is the home team going to stop?

Pick - Arkansas State -7 for 5 units

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