Georgia State Panthers Week 4 NCAA Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Predictions

The Georgia State Panthers seemed like a fun mid-major team to track this season; that was certainly the case after they stunned Tennessee in the opening week of the 2019 college football campaign and followed it up with a defeat of fellow respected mid-major program Furman. Where did that start come from, too? Georgia State went to bowl games in 2015 and 2017--even winning one in its most recent appearance--but took a big step back to the tune of a 2-10 record last year. The Panthers managed to beat only Kennesaw State and Louisiana-Monroe while suffering eight of their 10 losses by double-digits.

Following a proverbial "sophomore slump" in Year 2 under head coach Shawn Elliot, the third time started like a charm with defeats of the Volunteers and Purple Paladins. But is the honeymoon now over following last week's blowout loss at Western Michigan? We may be about to find out as I continue to track the Panthers' 2019 season. There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and document the results.

Last Game

The Panthers came crashing back to Earth with this past Saturday's 57-10 loss at Western Michigan. They may have been feeling a bit too good about themselves following their 38-30 upset of Tennessee and 48-42 shootout victory over Furman. To say Georgia State came out slow would be a gross understatement, as the visitors gave up 24 points in the first quarter. They trailed by a ridiculous 43-10 margin at halftime, so the final score was not even indicative of just how big of a blowout it was. There was no scoring of any kind in the fourth quarter after the Broncos tacked on two touchdowns in the third.

Georgia State quarterback Dan Ellington threw seven touchdowns without getting picked off a single time by the Volunteers and Paladins. Against Western Michigan, however, Ellington completed 11 of 20 passes for 126 yards with one TD and one INT. The Panthers gained only 336 yards of total offense compared to the Broncos' 694-including a laughable 450 on the round.

More: Guy Bruhn Picks for Georgia State vs. Texas State

Betting Trends

- Texas State is 0-4 ATS in its last four overall
- Texas State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 at home
- Texas State is 1-4 ATS in its last five against opponents with winning records
- Texas State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 after allowing more than 40 points in its previous game

Georgia State at Texas State College Football Odds

The line has not done much since opening with Texas State as a -3 home favorite. At almost all sportsbooks it briefly went to -3.5 and then settled back to -3 across the board . The total opened as high as 64, and most shops now have it at either 63 or 63.5, down just a bit perhaps due to Georgia State's struggles on offense against Western Michigan and the Bobcats' inability to move the ball through three games.

Georgia State at Texas State College Football Picks

On the heels of their season-opening surge, the Panthers got only nine points at Western Michigan. Clearly that +9 spread was not enough for the visitors, of whom many (I'm guilty as charged!) probably had an inflated opinion after watching them dispose of Tennessee and Furman. Georgia State is getting three points at Texas State, which seems reasonable because Texas State certainly is not Western Michigan. The Bobcats are 0-3 overall and 0-3 ATS so far. They came close to covering their first two spreads against Texas A&M and Wyoming before getting thrashed 47-17 at SMU as +17.5 underdogs last weekend.

The Bobcats are no strangers to slow starts. They were 1-6 through seven games last season and finished 3-9 (1-7 in the Sun Belt Conference). If anything, Texas State looks like it is even worse in 2019. Quarterback Gresch Jensen has more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (three) in part because he is constantly under pressure. Jensen has already been sacked 11 times. That is especially alarming because the Bobcats have so semblance of a running game, so are how are they to move the football? They have amassed a grand total of 74 yards on the ground through three games despite rushing the rock 66 times. For those counting, that's a 1.1 yards-per-rush average!

Texas State won last year's contest between these two teams 41-31, but Georgia State went 2-10 in 2018 and is obviously much improved this season. Go with the Panthers...but take the three points instead of the money line. You may need it!

Pick - Georgia State +3 for 3 units

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