Georgia State Panthers Picks for Week 8 in Doc's Specialization Series

Beating Tennessee? That's not exactly special these days; not even for a Sun Belt Conference representative like the Georgia State Panthers. It was at the time, of course, but at this point it's just another win. But going to a bowl game for the third time in five seasons? Now that would be special, and it looks like that's what the Panthers will do after bouncing back from a two-game losing streak with two consecutive wins. Odd years have been the charm for Georgia State, which went bowling in 2015 and 2017 and currently stands at 4-2 six games into this 2019 campaign. Third-year head coach Shawn Elliot's squad could be even better, but one of its two losses was a triple-overtime setback at Texas State.

On the heels of three straight Sun Belt contests in which they compiled a solid 2-1 record, the Panthers now entertain Army this weekend for their final nonconference game of the regular season. And with that, we continue to track Georgia State throughout its 10th season of football. There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article and we'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and document the results.

Last Game

Of Georgia State's four wins this season, three have come as an underdog. The Panthers were +3.5 'dogs last weekend at Coastal Carolina and emerged with a 31-21 victory. Seven days earlier, they covered a spread in even more routine fashion, beating Arkansas State 52-38 as +6.5 underdogs.

Coastal's 6-3 lead early in the second quarter was its only one of the contest, and GSU promptly reeled off two touchdowns to take a 17-6 advantage into halftime. The visitors scored two more unanswered TDs in the third quarter for a 31-13 cushion going into the fourth, thus being able to coast the rest of the way. Quarterback Dan Ellington was once again the offensive leader for Georgia State, turning in an efficient day at the office aside from one interception. Ellington completed 16 of 24 passes for 122 yards and one touchdown while also gaining team-high 128 rushing yards on 19 keepers. The Panthers had three different players exceed the 100-yard mark on the ground, as Tra Barnett (110) and Seth Paige (104) joined Ellington in helping GSU rack up 350 rushing yards as a team. Barnett found the endzone twice, and Paige added one touchdown. It was also an impressive day defensively for Georgia State, in part because it dominated the time of possession 34:59 to 25:01 and kept the Chanticleers' offense off the field.

Betting Trends

• Army is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games
• Army is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against the Sun Belt Conference
• Army is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with winning records
• Army is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games against teams with winning road records
• Georgia State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five home games
• 1-4-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games
• 1-6-2 ATS in its last nine games following a win

Georgia State at Texas State College Football Odds
 

The line has not done much. Georgia State opened as a +5.5 underdog at most sportsbooks before settling in at +6 across the board . The Panthers were briefly getting as many as seven points, but that did not last long. The total has done even less. It has never fluctuated outside the range of 56.5 to 57, currently resting at 56.5.
 

Army at Georgia State College Football Picks

Army has plenty of work to do if it wants to make a fourth straight bowl appearance in the sixth year under head coach Jeff Monken. The Black Knights are a solid but unspectacular 3-3, although they would be even better if they had been able to finish off then-No. 7 Michigan on Sept. 7. Army never trailed aside from the final score but ultimately lost at the Big House 24-21 in double-overtime. The Knights rebounded with wins over Texas-San Antonio and Morgan State, but they are now coming off consecutive setbacks at the hands of Tulane and Western Kentucky. Six different rushers have gained more than 100 yards this season, including quarterback Kelvin Hopkins Jr. with 284 yards and five touchdowns. Hopkins has also passed for 337 yards and three scores.

It is quite obvious that this is going to be a war of attrition on the ground. Georgia State is not going win the time-of-possession battle by 10 minutes like it did against Coastal Carolina, so there will be more pressure on the home team's defense this week. It is a defense that has not been great, to put it mildly. In their first five outings, the Panthers allowed 30 points (Tennessee), 42 (Furman), 57 (Western Michigan), 37 (Texas State), and 38 (Arkansas State). They are second-to-last in the Sun Belt Conference in scoring defense and third-to-last in total defense. Allowing 199.8 rushing yards per game does not bode well for Georgia State's chances of stopping the Black Knights.

Pick - Army -6 for 5 units

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