Georgia State Panthers Picks for Week 11 in Doc's Specialization Series

The Georgia State Panthers kicked off their 2019 campaign with a victory over Tennessee, and for the most part it has only been getting better and better. Although the Panthers lost to Western Michigan and Texas State (the latter in triple overtime), they are currently riding a four-game winning streak. Following Appalachian State's Week 10 setback against Georgia Southern, no team in the Sun Belt Conference is undefeated and four are tied with one conference loss. Georgia State is among the group, which also includes App State, Georgia Southern, and Louisiana.

With a 6-2 overall record, the Panthers have already clinched bowl eligibility. That was probably the main goal when the season began; after all, they could not have expected much more on the heels of a 2-10 record in 2018. Everything else will be icing on the cake, and Georgia State certainly has a chance to reach even greater heights-such as with victories over Appalachian State (Nov. 16) and Georgia Southern (Nov. 30), a bowl win, and perhaps even a Sun Belt Conference championship.

The next order of business is a Saturday date with the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (3-5, 2-2 Sun Belt). With that we continue to track Georgia State throughout its 10th season of football. There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article and we'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and document the results.

Last Game

The Panthers could not be feeling better about themselves right now. Not only have they won four in a row, but they are also coming off a bye week that will allow them to recharge their batteries heading into Saturday's road trip to Louisiana-Monroe. Georgia State last played on Oct. 26, when it blasted Troy 52-33 as a +1 underdog. In fact, this underestimated squad has been an underdog the entire way during this four-game streak. Five of the Panthers' six victories have come as underdogs, including a +24 spread against Tennessee. They have been favored only once this year (pushed a -6 spread in a 48-42 defeat of Furman on Sept. 7).

Some (not us!) may have been surprised that Georgia State did not have any trouble with Troy. The home team never trailed and the last tie (7-7) came with more 10 minutes remaining in the second quarter. It was a 14-point margin at halftime and 21 going into the fourth quarter. The Trojans briefly pulled to within 38-27 midway through the fourth before the Panthers quickly put the clamps down in emphatic fashion. Georgia State rushed for 390 yards and five touchdowns as a team; Tra Barnett racked up 242 yards and two scores on 34 carries, while Seth Paige went for 109 yards and one TD on just nine attempts. Quarterback Dan Ellington accounted for four total touchdowns (two passing, two rushing). On the other side of the ball, linebacker Victor Heyward finished with 10 tackles (seven solo, three for loss), one sack, and one pass defensed.

Betting Trends

• Georgia State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five overall
• Georgia State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last five against the Sun Belt Conference
• Georgia State is 3-0-2 ATS in its last five after gaining more than 450 yards in its previous outing
• Louisiana-Monroe is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall
• Louisiana-Monroe is 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 at home
• Louisiana-Monroe is 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Sun Belt Conference
• Louisiana-Monroe is 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records

Georgia State at Louisiana-Monroe College Football Odds
 

The line has not done much. Georgia State opened as a +2.5 underdog at most sportsbooks before briefly getting as little as 1.5 points. It quickly resurfaced, as the Panthers are now +2.5 underdogs across the board . The total, on the other hand, has been on a steady rise. It opened at 74, climbed as high as 77, and now stands at 76.5. There is a lot of optimism in the two offenses, and you'll see below that this in an especially favorable matchup for the Georgia State rushing attack.
 

Georgia State at Louisiana-Monroe College Football Picks

Like Georgia State, Louisiana-Monroe started the season in impressive fashion with a blowout of Grambling followed by a 45-44 overtime loss to Florida State. It has gone downhill since then, however, with four more setbacks-all of which saw the Warhawks give up at least 48 points. They are coming off consecutive losses to Appalachian State (52-7) and Arkansas State (48-41).

Unsurprisingly, ULM ranks dead last in the Sun Belt Conference in total defense (494.8 yards per game) and scoring defense (38.6 points per game). This is a particularly bad matchup for the Warhawks because they are also worst in the conference at stopping the run (235.2 yards per game). Georgia State is No. 3 in rushing offense (257.2 yards per game). The Panthers will be happy to keep the ball on the ground against a defense that leads the Sun Belt with nine interceptions. Barnett (career-high 928 rushing yards and eight touchdowns this season) is coming off a massive performance at Troy's expense and should be able to do similar damage against the 'Hawks.

Last year, when Georgia State went 2-10 and Louisiana-Monroe compiled a respectable 6-6 record, the Warhawks still could not win this head-to-head matchup (they got clobbered 46-14, in fact). Now the 'Hawks have taken a step back, whereas the Panthers are a completely different team for the better. What's to say anything on the scoreboard will change?

Pick - Georgia State -2 for 8 units