Week 5 College Football Week 4 NFL Free Picks from Doug Upstone

We have the last full weekend of September football action and have all the biggest line moves covered in college football and in the NFL. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (122-97-3 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.

CFB - Friday - (107) PENN STATE at (108) MARYLAND 8:00 ET FS1

If you thought about taking the total in this Big Ten battle, in one aspect you are late to the party. The total has zoomed from 57 to 61, sucking the value out of the "Over" for college football picks . The question is, should you even bother? If you are willing to against the grain and think "Under," you might have something. Both teams are capable of big scoring numbers, but they are also showcasing rugged defenses. That's not to say Penn State and Maryland won't score, but we do find the Terps are 12-3 Under in home games after a bye week.

Betting Trend - 75% backing Over

Doug's Doc's Take - Play Under

CFB - (113) NORTHWESTERN at (114) WISCONSIN 12:00 ET ABC

After the big Michigan blowout, Wisconsin has risen from -21 to a -24.5-point favorite over visiting Northwestern. As to why, simple, the Badgers have been ultra-impressive, outscoring a trio of foes by more than 43 points a contest. Another factor is Wisconsin suffered a humbling 31-17 loss at Evanston as 4.5-point away favorites last year, which places them in revenge-mode. The concern in backing Wisconsin is Northwestern coach, Pat Fitzgerald, is 31-16 ATS as a road underdog. No doubt the Badgers are capable of covering against the college football odds , but this a contest that always means more to the Wildcats, and they will keep it in the 17-21 point range while taking the loss.

Betting Trend - 75% backing Wisconsin

Doug's Doc's Take - Northwestern covers

CFB - (135) RUTGERS at (136) MICHIGAN 12:00 ET BTN

Michigan has gone from a Top 6 team to one of the least intriguing squads in the country. The Wolverines are playing with little energy and don't appear coached especially well by Jim Harbaugh and his staff. Nevertheless, the Wolverines are going to spank somebody soon, and it could be Rutgers, as the Scarlet Knights have climbed from +26 to +28. It makes all the sense in the world to back Rutgers, but the thought here is Michigan runs roughshod and doesn't give up until they are over the number and win 41-10.

Betting Trend - 68% backing Michigan

Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Michigan covers

Related: Guy Picks the Rutgers vs. Michigan ATS Winner

CFB - (147) FRESNO STATE at (148) NEW MEXICO STATE 8:00 ET

We assumed New Mexico State's defense was awful, but facing Washington and Alabama was hardly a concise way to understand the Aggies. Allowing 55 points to in-state rival New Mexico seals the deal that New Mexico State is one the worst defenses in college football. This is why those betting football had no problem lifting visiting Fresno State from -17.5 to -20. The Bulldogs passing offense should cut through the Aggies defense like teams in September have torched the Chicago Cubs' bullpen. Jeff Tedford is 22-7 ATS as the coach at Fresno and is also 12-2 ATS on the road. The Bulldogs scamper to a cover.

Betting Trend - 92% backing Fresno State

Doug's Doc's Take - Fresno State covers

CFB - (171) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (172) CHARLOTTE 7:00 ET NFLN

This C-USA clash features a pair of .500 clubs and two other meaningful features. Florida Atlantic opened at +1 and has been flipped to -1 at Charlotte. A likely reason for the switch is the road team is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS, with a run of three straight road upsets. Frankly, the most appealing aspect of this matchup is the total and taking the Over. Based on the spread and line movement, this is pretty much a coin flip, and I'll side with the 49ers and say the underdog goes to 4-0 ATS.

Betting Trend - 51% backing Charlotte

Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Charlotte covers

NFL - (261) KANSAS CITY at (262) DETROIT 1:00 ET FOX

Here is a stunner! The total in a Kansas City game is up two points to 55. While sportsbooks were forced to adjust the numbers by the way bets were placed, I have uncovered this and will go the other way. The Chiefs Andy Reid is 29-15 Under after a playing a game where 60 or more total points were scored in his career, and the Lions Matt Patricia is 6-0 Under as a home underdog.

Betting Trend - 83% backing Over

Doug's Doc's Take - Play Under

NFL - (263) NEW ENGLAND at (264) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS

New England is averaging more than 35 points a game this season. However, unless they essentially shut out Buffalo, the total suggests the Patriots will not reach that figure. The total in the AFC encounter has seen the total dip from 44 to 42.5. The Pats defense is stifling to this point in allowing 5.7 PPG, and it's not like quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills offense are anything more than average. It would not be a surprise if a talented Buffalo defense held New England to more field attempts than they would prefer, and these rivals move to 6-2 Under in their latest confrontations.

Betting Trend - 59 % backing Over

Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Under

NFL - (275) DALLAS at (276) NEW ORLEANS 8:20 ET NBC

Is Teddy Bridgewater going to play better than expected or will Dallas further expose the Saints leaky secondary? Those have to be the questions asked and answered for this total to jump from 45 to 47 points. Don't forget, last November the Cowboys upset New Orleans 13-10, showing the NFL how to slow the Saints down. Still, this is in the "Big Easy," and Sean Payton's club always plays faster at home. Dak Prescott will have numerous chances to light up the Saints last line of defense. Actually preferred the 45 points for our Over pick and will just lean that way at this time.

Betting Trend - 85% backing Over

Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Over

Public Consensus Record (2019) - 51% to 79% - 182-173-6 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2019) - 80% or Higher - 56-62-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2019) - 219-226-7 ATS

Doug Upstone is the newest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.

$$ Doug this weekend has a 7-unit CFB Winner and 6-unit NFL Winner and is off a Monster 8-2 football weekend!

$$ Doug is now 8-4, 66.6% for 2019 in the NFL

$$ Doug is 6-2-1 the last two weeks (Consider a weekly or Monthly package)

$$ Doug's on 58-38 NFL run and is 2016 Monitored Champion

$$ Doug has 21 No.1 monitored titles and 80 Top 10 finishes!

Check out Doug's Winning Plays! Click Here